FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

I see gold on XAU/USD holding firm near the 5000 psychological level after what I interpret as a classic false breakdown from the 5090 resistance zone, and I believe this failed bearish attempt reinforces the presence of strong dip buyers in the market. I view the sharp rejection below 5000 as evidence that sellers currently lack the strength to sustain downside momentum, and I interpret the quick recovery as a signal that demand remains active and responsive at lower levels. I consider the 4950–4980 zone as the immediate battlefield, and I believe that as long as price consolidates above 5000 and builds higher lows, the probability favors another push toward 5090 and potentially a breakout toward 5200. I recognize that the broader structure on the daily timeframe still reflects an expanding ascending channel that originated after the rebound from 4400, and I interpret the current movement as the development of a third impulsive wave within that bullish structure. I observe that every corrective dip continues to be bought, and I take this as confirmation that the prevailing trend remains upward despite temporary volatility. I acknowledge that only a sustained break below 4950 would meaningfully weaken my bullish outlook, and I would then reassess the possibility of a deeper correction toward 4850 or lower.

I also see strength on the H4 timeframe, where I identify a tightening triangle formation near its apex, and I interpret this compression as preparation for an expansion move, most likely in the direction of the dominant trend. I note that price is trading above the short-term moving average around 5021 and remains supported by intraday momentum, and I believe this positioning keeps buyers in control in the near term. I expect that a break and consolidation above 5125 would open the path toward a retest of 5200 and potentially extend toward 5355–5460, where I would anticipate stronger supply and possibly a corrective pullback. I remain aware that market sentiment shows near parity between buyers and sellers, and I interpret this balance as fuel for continuation rather than immediate reversal. I analyze the latest COT data as showing weakening bearish pressure, and although I acknowledge that net long positions have declined to multi-year lows, I believe such positioning could act as a contrarian bullish signal if new buyers step in. I maintain that the global uptrend structure is intact, and I favor continuation scenarios as long as structural support zones remain defended.