FX.co ★ USD/CHF

I am analyzing USD/CHF with a continued focus on the bullish structure that has developed after the breakout above 0.7720, and I see that this level has shifted from resistance into potential support that could offer a favorable pullback entry. I recognize that the four-hour chart shows the move as somewhat extended in the short term, yet I still see underlying dollar strength supporting the possibility of a push toward 0.7780–0.7790. I am watching the attempt to form an intraday ascending channel, and I understand that a clean retest of 0.7720 would reinforce the lower boundary of that channel and provide a technical rebound zone. I acknowledge that the broader context still reflects a dominant long-term downtrend, yet I interpret the 0.76–0.77 region as a multi-year demand zone that strengthens the case for a medium-term corrective rise. I am aware that the upside is not without obstacles, and I am carefully monitoring the gap area between 0.7748 and 0.7800 as well as the dynamic resistance near 0.7920 from the higher moving averages. I believe that if price stabilizes above 0.7740 and consolidates above 0.7770, I could justify looking for continuation trades targeting 0.7852 and potentially 0.7864. I am also factoring in momentum signals, as RSI and MACD on the lower timeframes are beginning to reflect renewed buying pressure, which encourages me to deprioritize aggressive shorts for now. I still recognize that a failure to hold above 0.7740 could open space for a decline toward 0.7690, but I see that scenario as secondary unless confirmed by a decisive break and consolidation below recent lows. I am especially attentive to the 50 and 13 moving average confluence as confirmation for any bearish acceleration, yet at this stage I see more structure supporting gradual upside development than immediate downside continuation.

I am shifting my focus to the daily timeframe to refine a more reliable long-term entry, and I see that the breakout above 0.7747 and the reclaim of EMA20 provide structural support for continued growth within the visible daily wedge. I interpret the oscillators such as CCI and MACD, combined with rising daily volumes, as early confirmation that bullish momentum is rebuilding. I am identifying 0.7791 as a critical resistance level on the H4 chart, strengthened by the EMA200 acting as dynamic resistance, and I understand that without a clear breakout above this zone, upward continuation may remain constrained. I am preparing for the possibility of a controlled pullback toward 0.7747 or even slightly lower toward EMA20 or EMA65 before a renewed upward attempt. I believe that such a pullback would actually improve the risk-to-reward profile for a serious long-term position rather than chasing price near resistance. I am targeting the 0.7852–0.7864 region as the next strong resistance cluster, and I see this as a logical medium-term objective if the wedge resistance breaks convincingly. I remain aware that growth above the 0.78 handle could slow temporarily, especially if negative fundamental developments impact the dollar, but I still view dips as corrective rather than trend-defining at this stage. I am discarding the 0.7710 deep breakdown scenario for now because current structure and momentum do not support immediate bearish continuation. I am therefore planning to wait for either a confirmed breakout above 0.7791 with consolidation or a healthy pullback toward 0.7747 to establish a long position with disciplined control levels.