The Gold current price movement indicates a market structure that is strengthening again after experiencing sharp pressure at the end of January. Overall, the medium-term trend remains bullish, as evidenced by the price position above the main moving average and the higher low pattern that has formed since early February. From a price structure perspective, the sharp decline that occurred at the previous peak was followed by a fairly long consolidation phase. Afterward, the market began to form a strong base around the 4,650–4,700 area, then gradually moved upward. This upward pattern indicates that selling pressure is weakening and market participants are resuming accumulation. From the trend indicator, the 100 Moving Average (blue) is above the 200 Moving Average (red) with an upward slope. This condition confirms that the medium-term trend remains bullish. Furthermore, the current price position, which is moving above the 100 Moving Average (MA100), indicates that buying momentum is still dominant.
As long as the price remains above the 100 MA area, the opportunity for further upside remains open. The price is currently testing a key resistance area around 5,240-5,280. This area previously served as a consolidation zone and has been a point of rejection several times. If the price breaks through and closes firmly above this zone, the potential for further upside towards the next resistance level in the 5,400-5,550 range is quite realistic. A valid breakout is usually marked by a strong bullish candle accompanied by increased volatility. However, caution should be exercised regarding the possibility of rejection at the current resistance area. If the price fails to break through and resumes its downward movement, a healthy correction could occur towards the nearest support area around 5,170-5,120, which is near the 100-day moving average (MA100). As long as the correction remains above this area, the bullish structure remains unchanged and could actually present an opportunity for the uptrend to continue. The next strong support level is around 4,920-4,950, which is near the 200-day moving average (MA200). A decline to this area can still be considered a pullback within the uptrend as long as there is no significant break below it. However, if the price falls and settles below the 200-day moving average (MA200), the market bias could potentially shift from neutral to bearish. From a momentum perspective, the current price movement approaching resistance indicates increased buying interest. The narrow consolidation pattern that forms before a rise also indicates an accumulation phase that often precedes an impulsive move. Overall, the technical outlook for GOLD on the H4 timeframe remains bullish, with the primary focus on the price reaction in the 5,240–5,280 area. A breakout above this zone would open up further upside, while failure to break through could trigger a short-term correction before the uptrend resumes. The best approach in these conditions is to wait for confirmation of a clear breakout or pullback to align with the dominant trend.
