FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

I see several reasons why major oil-producing countries have not yet actively tapped strategic reserves despite the growing supply concerns. I believe the first and most obvious reason is the technical and economic difficulty of extracting certain grades of oil stored in reserves. I understand that not all stored oil is equally easy or profitable to refine, because refineries are designed for specific crude grades, and I think releasing the wrong type of crude may create logistical and refining inefficiencies. I also believe that the more significant reason is that releasing reserves would only provide a short-term psychological effect on the market rather than solving the structural supply deficit. I calculate that if the global shortage is currently around 15 million barrels per day, and previously more than 20 million barrels moved through the shipping channel, then even a large reserve release would only temporarily slow the imbalance. I consider the estimated 400–420 million barrels in U.S. strategic reserves to be significant on paper, but I also understand that the recoverable and usable volume may be smaller in practice due to storage conditions and logistical limits. I believe that if the market deficit continues at 15–20 million barrels daily, these reserves could theoretically cover demand for only a few weeks. I therefore think policymakers understand that releasing reserves now could suppress prices for only a few days before triggering an even stronger rally once markets realize that emergency supplies are shrinking.

I also think the geopolitical dimension is becoming just as important as the supply-demand balance. I believe that the current strategy of the United States reflects a broader economic and geopolitical gamble, where the leadership is willing to take significant risks to reshape global alliances and trade flows. I personally think that the policy direction suggests an attempt to weaken economic links between major powers, especially by separating other economies from both China and Russia while simultaneously leaving the door open for selective cooperation with Russia in areas such as investment and energy projects. I suspect that this strategy aims to restructure global energy and financial influence rather than simply respond to short-term market fluctuations. From a trading perspective, I view the crude oil market as one of the clearest trending environments at the moment. I see the continuation of the long-term bullish structure and I expect that if momentum continues, the market could test higher resistance levels with a possible objective around the 130 area before any meaningful correction appears. I also observe on the H4 timeframe that the wave structure could represent a sequence of first and second waves rather than an expanded diagonal triangle, which suggests the potential for stronger impulsive movement. On the M15 timeframe, I see a possible extension forming within the fifth wave, and I believe that if the price breaks out of the current consolidation pattern, bullish momentum could accelerate significantly.