Based on the provided
EURUSD H4 chart data, the price action reveals a textbook bearish trend that has been in place since mid-February 2025. The market has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, declining from the 1.19560 resistance level down to the recent low of 1.14025. The current price is hovering near 1.14025, showing signs of a potential basing pattern or consolidation after an extended move. This structure indicates that sellers remain firmly in control, but the market may be entering a oversold condition warranting a pause or correction.
Technical Structure & Critical Levels The market structure is bearish on the H4 timeframe, characterized by a clear sequence of descending peaks and troughs. The recent slowing of momentum suggests a possible consolidation or corrective phase. · Immediate Resistance: 1.14640 - 1.15255 (First supply zone & recent swing highs). · Key Resistance (Bearish Invalidation): 1.15769 - 1.16485 (Stronger resistance zone; reclaiming this would pause the downtrend). · Major Resistance (Trend Reversal Level): 1.17100 - 1.17715 (The broken support turned resistance zone). · Primary Support: 1.14025 (Current swing low & critical level for bears to break). · Breakdown Target: 1.13500 → 1.13000 (Next psychological supports).
Trading Plan & Scenarios 1. Bearish Scenario (Trend Resumption - Preferred Bias): The dominant trend is down. The strategy favors selling rallies into resistance or selling a breakdown of the current low. · Action 1 (Sell the Rally): Look for price to retrace into the 1.14640 - 1.15255 resistance zone and show bearish rejection signals. · Entry Zone: 1.14700 - 1.15100 on bearish reversal signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar). · Target: 1.14025 → 1.13500. · Stop-Loss: A H4 close above 1.15500. · Action 2 (Breakdown Sell): A decisive H4 close below 1.14000 confirms bearish momentum accelerating. · Entry: On a retest of 1.14000-1.14150 as new resistance, or on the break below 1.13900. · Target: 1.13500 → 1.13000. · Stop-Loss: A H4 close above 1.14400.
2. Bullish Scenario (Corrective Bounce): After an extended decline, a relief rally is possible but should be viewed as corrective within the larger downtrend. · Trigger: A strong H4 close above 1.15255, and more convincingly above 1.15769. · Implication: Would suggest a deeper correction toward 1.16485-1.17100 is underway. · Action: Consider long positions only on a confirmed recovery above 1.15300, with tight risk management. · Entry Zone: 1.15100 - 1.15400 on a confirmed breakout pullback. · Target: 1.15769 → 1.16485. · Stop-Loss: Below 1.14640.
Summary EURUSD on the H4 chart remains in a well-defined bearish trend since mid-February, with the current price testing the 1.14025 support level. The strategy favors selling rallies into the 1.14640-1.15255 resistance zone for a continuation toward 1.13500 and below. The bearish outlook remains valid as long as price stays below 1.15769. A break above this level would signal a potential deeper correction, while a breakdown below 1.14000 accelerates the downtrend. Trade with the trend—sell rallies, not breaks.
