FX.co ★ AUD/USD

Hello traders! #AUDUSD — the bearish impulse is gaining strength, the price confidently settled below 0.6864–0.6867 and shows weakness, expecting further decline. Timeframe and context H1. After a failed attempt to settle above the 0.6864–0.6867 zone, the AUD/USD pair formed a peak and experienced a confident pullback downwards. The current price at the time of analysis stabilizes around 0.6854 dollars with a negative close (-0.16%) (O 0.6864 → H 0.6867 → L 0.6851 → C 0.6854), corresponding to the scenario of completing the upward correction wave and starting a new bearish phase with a clear breakthrough and consolidation below key levels. Market structure: Bearish trend in the medium term Locally, the market demonstrates complete dominance of sellers: - Confident breakthrough of the 0.6864–0.6867 zone followed by holding below it and a series of strong red candles - Dominance of bearish closes in the current segment, with practically no signs of buyer pressure - Lack of retracement above the broken level and stability after resistance test — a classic signal of continuation of the downward impulse Buyers have completely lost control after testing the upper boundaries, creating ideal conditions for seller dominance. Indicators confirm a strong bearish sentiment: RSI confidently below 40, momentum remains low without divergences; price stays below all key EMAs (50, 100, 200); MACD with a powerful negative histogram and downward impulse expansion. Liquidity and levels Significant liquidity was collected above 0.6864–0.6867 during the rise (stop-losses and long positions closure), now the main accumulation of buyers' stops and pending orders is below current prices in the 0.6854–0.6851 zones and further down to 0.6846–0.6830+. Breaking 0.6864 and consolidating below 0.6854 opened the way to lower targets: - Liquidity is concentrated below — expecting a cascade stop collection when approaching 0.6851– - Current stabilization around 0.6854 and the absence of a strong rebound indicate stable supply - Approach to support zones with high volatility and acceleration of movement is expected Levels coincide with 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the previous impulse, dynamic EMAs, and the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel. Projected movement: Continuation of the downward impulse Further development of a strong downward impulse is expected after consolidating below 0.6854: - Consolidation below 0.6851 with acceleration - Break of the 0.6846–0.6830 zone with activation of large pending sales - Updating lows and forming a new downward wave In the short term, a small consolidation in the range of 0.6851–0.6867 is possible for digestion of the movement, but in the medium term, the trend remains extremely bearish with potential testing of 0.6820–. Movement targets (Take Profit for short) TP1 — 0.6851–0.6846 First significant support zone after the current impulse Suitable for partial profit taking TP2 — 0.6830–0.6820 Intermediate area with liquidity accumulation and expansion Opportunity for additional profit taking TP3 — 0.6800– Key medium-term target of the current bearish impulse Expected range for the completion of the downward wave Risks and scenario cancellation conditions The scenario will be canceled under the following conditions: - Break and consolidation above 0.6867 with the formation of new highs - Development of an ascending structure with a series of increasing lows and strengthening buyer pressure Final conclusion Trend: medium-term bearish, impulse in force Correction: completed at strong resistance 0.6864–0.6867 Liquidity: main accumulation below 0.6851–0.6830, high probability of continuation of the downward impulse Targets: 0.6851–0.6846, 0.6830–0.6820, 0.6800– Traders, how do you view AUDUSD now? Holding short or expecting a bounce from 0.6851? Share your levels and ideas in the comments!