FX.co ★ AUD/USD

AUD/USD OVERVIEW 3 APR The way the Aussie just snarled back from that 6831 level tells you everything you need to know about who’s actually in control of this chart. We’re sitting at 6903 right now, and while the "Good Friday" lull has most of the world moving in slow motion, this feels like the quiet before a massive breakout. The pair is basically coiled like a spring, especially with the US employment change and those average hourly earnings figures looming large this evening. In a thin-liquidity market like today, those numbers are going to hit like a sledgehammer. The RSI is hovering around 42, which is perfect—it means the market isnt even close to being overbought yet, leaving a massive runway for a vertical move if the data gives us the green light. That slow, grinding consolidation were seeing isnt a sign of exhaustion; it’s the bulls catching their breath and building a base above that yellow trendline support before the final push of the week.

The immediate ceiling at 7028 is the only thing standing in the way of a real moonshot, but honestly, with the way the Friday close is shaping up, that level looks pretty fragile. If the US session delivers even a hint of dollar weakness, we’re going to see 7028 get shredded. A solid daily close above that mark shifts the whole conversation—it turns a "bounce" into a full-blown trend continuation. From there, the road to 7144 is wide open. That ascending trendline has been the backbone of this move for months, and as long as we’re trading north of it, the bears are just fighting gravity. The moving averages are starting to realign, and the rejection we saw earlier today confirms that the big money is still defending the lower bounds. If the momentum holds through the close, we’re looking at a direct run back to those 7144 highs to cap off the week. It’s a high-conviction setup, and as long as the support holds, the path of least resistance is straight up.