GOLD H4 Timeframe: Gold price movement on the H4 timeframe shows quite clear trend dynamics, especially when examined through a combination of the 100 Moving Average (MA 100) and 200 Moving Average (MA 200) indicators, as well as the established horizontal support and resistance structures. Overall, the market appears to be in a transition phase after experiencing strong bearish pressure. Looking at the trend structure, the price briefly moved bullish from late February to early March, marked by prices above the 100 and 200 MAs. However, this momentum could not be maintained, and a significant reversal occurred in mid-March. This sharp decline led the price to first break through the 100 MA, followed by a breakout of the 200 MA, confirming a technically bearish trend shift. Furthermore, the 100 MA, which has crossed below the 200 MA, reinforces the indication of a death cross, which often signals continued price weakness in the medium term. Following this sharp decline, the price entered a consolidation phase in the lower area, specifically around a strong support zone seen in the 4200–4350 range. This area is crucial because it has repeatedly resisted selling pressure, triggering a rebound. From there, the price began to show a gradual recovery, forming a structure of higher lows, although not yet strong enough to alter the main trend.
Currently, the price appears to be moving closer to the 100-day moving average (MA) above it, while the 200-day moving average (MA) remains higher and tends to slope downwards. This indicates that despite the recovery attempt, overall bearish pressure remains dominant. The 100-day moving average (MA) now acts as the closest dynamic resistance, which has so far been able to contain the price increase. As long as the price is unable to break through and remain above the 100-day moving average (MA), the potential for further weakness remains open. In terms of horizontal support and resistance, there are several key levels worth watching. The closest resistance is in the 4720–4800 range, which is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA), making it a fairly strong confluence zone. If the price manages to break through this area with solid momentum, it will open up the opportunity to continue rising towards the next resistance level around 4900–5050. However, failure to break through this area could potentially trigger a rejection, sending the price lower. On the downside, the nearest support is seen around 4520–4580. If selling pressure increases again and the price breaks through this area, it will likely retest the strong support level around 4350–4200. This area is crucial as it has previously been a significant reversal point. A break below this level would open the door to a deeper decline and confirm the continuation of the medium-term bearish trend. Overall, the current situation can be described as a retracement phase within a larger bearish trend. The price is attempting a recovery but remains under pressure from the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Therefore, the price's subsequent direction will be largely determined by its reaction to the dynamic resistance at the 100-day moving average and the surrounding horizontal area. Until a convincing breakout occurs, a more conservative approach is to maintain a bearish view of the dominant trend, with limited potential for a pullback before a possible resumption of the decline.
