EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 7 APR Looking at EUR/USD on the H4 right now, it’s not the most exciting chart, but it’s definitely one that requires patience. Since March, price has been moving sideways in a very clear range, and honestly, it feels like the market has been stuck for a while. We’re currently trading around 1.1539, which puts us right in the middle of the structure. That alone makes it a difficult area to trade, because you’re not near support or resistance. It’s one of those spots where both sides look weak, and price just keeps drifting without committing. What stands out to me is how clean this range is. On the upside, there’s a resistance zone between 1.1630 and 1.1650. Price has tested that area more than once, and each time sellers stepped in with clear rejection. We saw it in early March and again just before April. That kind of repeated reaction usually means strong selling interest is sitting there. Buyers try to push through, but they don’t have enough momentum yet. On the downside, there’s support between 1.1430 and 1.1450. This area has also held up well. When price dropped there mid-March, it bounced quickly, leaving long lower wicks. That tells me buyers are still active at those levels. So overall, we’ve got a well-defined range with a ceiling and a floor, and price is just moving between them without direction. Looking at the moving averages adds to the story. The 50-period moving average is almost flat, and price is moving around it without respect. That usually means there’s no real short-term trend. The 200-period moving average, on the other hand, is still slightly sloping downward and sitting near 1.1620. That puts it very close to the resistance zone, which makes that area even stronger. When you have both horizontal resistance and a dynamic level like the 200 MA in the same place, it’s not easy to break. It usually takes a strong push or some kind of catalyst. Until that happens, I tend to respect that resistance. At the same time, support below is still holding, so it’s not a clear sell either. It’s just a range. The RSI is sitting around 49, which fits perfectly with what we’re seeing. It’s neutral, showing no strong momentum. Over the past few weeks, it’s been moving between 30 and 70 without staying extreme. That’s typical for a sideways market. For me, RSI around 50 just confirms there’s no edge in the middle. Because of that, I’m not interested in trading at 1.1539. It doesn’t offer a good risk-to-reward. You’re not buying low or selling high, you’re just in the middle. I’d rather wait for price to reach either 1.1630 or 1.1430, where decisions become clearer. If price moves up toward resistance, I’ll watch for rejection signals. If it drops to support, I’ll look for buyers stepping in again. At the same time, I’m aware that ranges eventually break. If we get a clean move above 1.1650, the structure changes and we could see 1.1800. If support at 1.1430 breaks, then 1.1300 becomes a realistic target.
