FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Yesterday, Deputy Ueda spoke. Many were waiting for any kind of signal. A hint of firmness. Preparation for a rate hike. None of that happened. Everything in the usual style. Cautious. About risks. About uncertainty. About the impact of the conflict and oil price increase. We watch. We evaluate. We observe. No deadlines. No hints. No attempt to shift expectations. And this in itself is a signal. Because the market had already pushed the tightening theme ahead. They almost believed in a rate hike in April. And they were not given anything on that. As a result, the reaction is neutral. The yen did not receive a reason to rise. USD/JPY stands where it was, high. And that's logical. The BOJ is currently in an uncomfortable position. Oil is rising. It hits the economy. But at the same time, it pushes inflation up. Raising rates is dangerous. Not raising them is also a problem. That's why they are buying time. And as long as they buy time, the yen remains weak. Technically, everything is simple too. The price is holding below 160. But it's not falling. After dropping to 157, everything was quickly bought up. This means there is demand below. Right now, there is a pause. A narrow range. The market is waiting for a trigger. Without news, there is no movement. With news, the movement will be sharp. And this is important. Not the level of 160 itself. But how it approaches it. If slowly and with pullbacks, they will continue to grind. If sharply and on news, they may intervene. Intervention is not about the level. It's about speed and overheating. They will strike quickly. They will drop by several figures. And everyone will talk about a reversal again. But it's not a reversal. They will just cool down the market. Until the situation changes. The BOJ is cautious. The yen is weak. The price is high. News will decide what happens next. Key levels for today/tomorrow: Resistance: 159.70 - 160 (very strong) - 160.5 Support: 159 - 158.8 (first) - 158.2 - 158.5 (strong) - 157.5