FX.co ★ NZD/JPY

I’ve been analyzing the recent movement of the NZD/JPY pair, and the latest upward surge, which reached just below the 94.00 level, appears to have been limited by a strong resistance zone. This area has repeatedly acted as a barrier, forcing buyers to close their positions and preventing the price from moving significantly higher. From what I observe on the chart, this resistance has proven to be reliable, at least in the short term, as it continues to cap bullish momentum. Despite this, I am not placing too much emphasis on the current increase in bearish activity. While there are signs that sellers are attempting to gain control, I believe the broader fundamental context still supports the upside. One of the key factors influencing my perspective is the relative weakness of the Japanese yen. A weaker yen typically supports upward movement in yen pairs, including NZD/JPY, and this underlying pressure should not be ignored. In addition to that, recent economic data from New Zealand has come in stronger than expected, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The higher-than-forecast inflation reading increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may consider raising interest rates. This expectation tends to strengthen the New Zealand dollar, adding further support to the pair. When I combine these fundamental drivers with the current technical structure, I find it difficult to fully commit to a bearish outlook. As a result, I prefer to treat the current bearish movement as temporary or corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained downtrend. Instead of expecting a sharp decline, I believe the market is more likely to enter a sideways phase. This kind of consolidation often occurs after a strong upward move, as the market takes time to absorb gains and reassess direction.

Looking at the support side, the level around 93.74, which corresponds to Murray 8/8, stands out as a key area. In my view, sellers currently lack a strong reason to aggressively push the price down toward this support level. Without a clear catalyst or strong bearish momentum, it is unlikely that the market will break significantly lower in the near term. Because of this, I am approaching the market with a more neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias. I am not eager to sell into this market unless I see stronger confirmation of a downward move. At the same time, I remain cautious about chasing price higher near resistance, as the 94.00 area has already proven to be difficult to break. For now, I expect price action to remain relatively range-bound, fluctuating between resistance near 94.00 and support around 93.74. My strategy is to observe how the market behaves within this range and wait for clearer signals before taking a position. Overall, while resistance is holding and some bearish pressure is visible, the broader context suggests that the market is more likely to consolidate rather than reverse sharply. I will continue to monitor both technical levels and fundamental developments to adjust my approach accordingly.