#USDX H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart of the US Dollar Index (#USDX), the current technical structure indicates a bearish consolidation phase after experiencing significant downward pressure from the peak of 100.13 to form a swing low around 97.60. The latest price movement, around 98.57, places the index testing a new equilibrium after rebounding from a key support zone. However, the overall intermediate bias remains cautious as the price has not yet confirmed a solid trend change. From a moving average perspective, the 100-day moving average (MA), marked by the blue line, appears to have turned downward and moved below the red 200-day moving average (MA), indicating that medium-term momentum remains under bearish pressure. The current price position is also below the 200-day moving average (MA), reinforcing that key dynamic resistance still limits room for upside. Meanwhile, the price is moving very close to the 100-day moving average (MA), indicating that this area is becoming a tug-of-war zone between buyers attempting to continue the recovery and sellers maintaining the dominance of the previous downtrend. Upon closer inspection, the sharp decline in early April, which broke through the support levels of 99.60 and 99.16, signaled a structural shift from bullish to bearish. This breakdown not only shattered horizontal support but also shifted the market's character from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows. In price action theory, such structural changes often provide a valid basis for anticipating further downward pressure as long as the price fails to break through major resistance.
The 98.32 zone now serves as a crucial immediate support area. This level previously served as the basis for a rebound after the price rebounded from the 97.98–97.60 area. As long as the price remains above 98.32, the opportunity for upward consolidation or a correction towards resistance remains open. However, if this level is broken with a convincing candlestick closing, selling pressure could potentially return to 97.98, even opening up room for a retest of the strong support level of 97.60, a key foundation for the recent rebound. Losing the 97.60 area risks triggering a deeper bearish phase. On the upside, initial resistance is at 98.65, which currently aligns with a minor distribution area and is close to the 100-day moving average (MA). This is the first barrier buyers must overcome to regain momentum. If the 98.65 area is successfully surpassed, the next target is 99.16, a stronger horizontal resistance area close to the 200-day moving average (MA). This area is crucial because it not only serves as static resistance but also serves as a validation point for whether the rebound is merely a technical pullback or the beginning of a true trend reversal. A clear break above 99.16 could push the price towards 99.60, and if momentum is strong enough, the potential for a retest to 100.13 or even 100.61 remains open. However, the rebound from the 97.60 to 98.65 area so far still resembles a corrective rebound rather than a new bullish impulse. Recent candles indicate that buying momentum is starting to lose steam just below the resistance cluster and moving averages. This often indicates the market is building a new lower high, which in a bearish context could signal a continuation of the decline if support is breached again. From a moving average (MA) perspective, the convergence between the 100- and 200-day moving averages is also noteworthy. While there hasn't been an aggressive bearish widening, the 100-day moving average's continued decline puts structural pressure on any short-term uptrend. As long as the price moves below these two moving averages, any uptrend is likely to be viewed more as a retracement than a major trend change. Overall, the #USDX structure on the H4 timeframe is currently in a neutral, bearish phase, with key support levels at 98.32, 97.98, and 97.60, while key resistance levels are at 98.65, 99.16, 99.60, and 100.13. As long as the price is unable to break through and maintain above the 200-day moving average (MA) and resistance at 99.16, the dominant bias remains for further downward pressure. However, as the price is near key support while testing the 100-day moving average (MA), there is room for short-term two-way volatility before the next direction is more clearly confirmed. The combination of the price reaction to 98.32 and the ability of buyers to break through 98.65 will be key to determining whether the dollar index enters a broader recovery phase or continues the bearish trend that has been in place since early April.
