GOLD Timeframe Daily: On the daily GOLD chart, the current technical structure indicates a correction phase within a major trend that remains bullish, but upward momentum is starting to face significant pressure. The latest price, around 4679, is moving very close to the 100-day moving average (MA) area marked by the blue line, while the 200-day moving average (MA), well below the price, still maintains a healthy upward slope. This configuration generally indicates that the long-term trend has not been broken, but in the medium term, the market is testing the strength of dynamic support to determine its next direction. The main focus now is on the price interaction with the 100-day moving average (MA) around 4670–4660. After a sharp decline from the peak area of 5288 and an aggressive correction near 4414, the market briefly showed a recovery, but the rebound failed to establish a new higher high and instead stalled below the resistance level of 4757. Rejection in this area indicates that buyers are not yet strong enough to restore full dominance. Now, the price is again testing the 100-day moving average area, which often serves as dynamic support in a healthy uptrend. As long as this area holds, the opportunity for a technical rebound remains open. Horizontally, the nearest support is seen at 4611, which currently serves as a key support level. This area is close to the price and the 100-day moving average (MA), making it a strong technical confluence zone. If the price is able to hold above 4611, consolidation could potentially develop into a base for a recovery towards resistance at 4757. However, if this level is decisively broken, selling pressure could send the price down towards the next support level at 4552, then 4474, with major support at 4414. The 4414 area holds strong significance as it previously served as a major rebound point following the March selloff, so losing this level could shift the intermediate bullish structure into a deeper correction.
On the upside, the first resistance remains at 4757, which has been a distribution area several times. A break above this zone would improve short-term sentiment and open up room towards 4890. If bullish momentum recovers and 4890 is successfully surpassed, the next target is 5020, a key structural resistance level. Above there are 5238 and 5288, which were previously peak areas and pose major obstacles to the continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the extreme levels of 5422 to 5597 remain relevant long-term resistance if the main bullish trend re-accelerates. Judging from the relationship between the 100- and 200-day moving averages, the long-term bullish structure remains quite solid, as the 100-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average, and there are no indications of a death cross, which typically signals a major bearish reversal. In fact, the distance between the two moving averages remains relatively wide, indicating that the main trend hasn't completely lost its foundation. However, it's important to note that the price is now moving close to the 100-day moving average. If downward pressure persists and consistently breaks through it, the market could enter a deeper correction phase, approaching the 200-day moving average, which serves as a long-term mean reversion. From a price action perspective, the pattern of the last few candles indicates weakening bullish momentum. A series of candles with smaller bodies and a tendency to make lower highs are visible after failing to break through the 4757 resistance level. This pattern often indicates a mild distribution or bearish consolidation phase before the market determines a new direction. If buyers fail to immediately defend this dynamic support area, the risk of an extended correction increases. However, the larger structure hasn't turned bearish as long as the price remains above 4414, and especially as long as the 200-day moving average remains intact. The current correction can still be interpreted as a healthy pullback within a larger uptrend. Many strong bullish trends actually build a foundation for further upside through a retracement to the 100-day moving average (MA) before continuing upwards. Overall, GOLD is at a key technical juncture. The 4611 area is a key pivot point that will determine whether the market will continue its rebound or enter a further correction. As long as the price holds above this support and breaks through 4757 again, the bullish outlook towards 4890 and 5020 remains valid. However, if 4611 is broken and pressure continues towards 4552 and 4414, the correction could deepen before the main trend potentially resumes its upward movement. In the current context, the long-term bias remains bullish, but the medium-term market is in a crucial support testing phase.
