EUR/USD Timeframe H4: On the EUR/USD chart with a 4-hour timeframe, the price structure shows a trend that was previously bullish, then underwent a correction phase, and is currently trending towards a consolidation area with a neutral to slightly bearish tendency. Price movement since late March has shown a fairly strong increase, marked by clear higher highs and higher lows, reaching a peak around 1.1840–1.1850. However, after reaching this level, selling pressure began to emerge, triggering a fairly deep correction. Judging from the moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA), which generally still reflects a medium-term uptrend. This signals that the main trend has not yet fully turned bearish. However, the distance between the price and the 100-day moving average (MA) is starting to narrow, and the price has even fallen and approached it. This indicates that bullish momentum has weakened significantly. The 100-day moving average (MA) itself is starting to lose its sharp slope and is trending flat, signaling a transition from a trend to a sideways condition. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) is still moving slowly upward, reflecting that the long-term trend remains relatively stable, although no longer strong. The interaction of price with these two moving averages is key to understanding current market conditions. Prices hovering around the 100-day moving average (MA) indicate a balance between buyers and sellers. In the last few candles, the price has been attempting to stay above the 100-day moving average (MA), but has not yet generated significant upward momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), located slightly below, represents a fairly strong dynamic support zone, as it has not been convincingly penetrated so far.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, several key levels shape the current price structure. The nearest resistance area is located around 1.1790–1.1800, which previously served as a consolidation area before the decline. This level now acts as resistance because the price failed to break through it after the correction. Higher resistance lies around 1.1840–1.1850, which was the previous high and a strong supply zone that triggered a reversal. Meanwhile, the nearest support is seen around 1.1710–1.1720, which is currently being tested by the price. This level is crucial as it serves as the lower limit of the recent sideways movement. If this level can hold, there's still potential for a rebound. The next support area is located at 1.1640–1.1650, which is close to the 200-day moving average (MA). This area is a key demand zone that previously marked the starting point for significant gains. If the price falls below this level, buyers will likely react again. The price structure over the past few days has shown a consolidation pattern following a decline, with relatively limited movement between established support and resistance levels. This indicates that the market is seeking a new direction, whether to continue its uptrend or reverse to a bearish trend. The volume and strength of the candlesticks at the time of the breakout will be the determining factors. If a bullish scenario occurs, the price will need to break through and maintain above the 1.1790 resistance with strong momentum. This breakout will open the opportunity to retest the 1.1840 area. Under these conditions, the 100-day moving average (MA) will likely once again act as dynamic support, pushing the price upward. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above 1.1710 and breaks below with a clear closing, selling pressure could potentially continue towards the 1.1640 area. A break below the 200-day moving average (MA) would be a stronger signal that the trend is starting to turn bearish in the medium term. Overall, EUR/USD is currently in a crucial transition phase on the H4 timeframe. Although the main trend remains bullish, as seen from the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), weakening momentum and the formation of consolidation indicate directional uncertainty. Therefore, a more prudent approach is to wait for confirmation of a breakout of key levels before placing a position, while still monitoring the price reaction to both moving averages as an indicator of trend dynamics.
