EUR/JPY Timeframe H4 
The movement of EUR/JPY on the H4 timeframe shows a trend structure that was previously quite strong in a bullish direction, but is now starting to enter a correction phase and potential consolidation. Analysis using the 100-period Moving Average (MA 100) marked by the blue line and the 200-period Moving Average (MA 200) in red provides a clear picture of the dynamics of the medium to long-term trend. Overall, the price is still above the MA 200, indicating that the main trend is still considered bullish. The MA 200 itself appears to be gradually moving upwards, reflecting accumulation and price increases that have been occurring in recent times. This position confirms that in a larger structure, the market still tends to continue its upward movement, as long as there is no significant breakthrough below the MA 200. Meanwhile, the MA 100 is above the MA 200 and has been a key support during the uptrend phase. In the previous strong uptrend period, the price consistently moved above the MA 100, indicating a solid bullish momentum. However, the recent conditions show that the price is starting to decline and approaching, even touching, the area of the MA 100. This is an early indication that buying momentum is weakening and selling pressure is starting to emerge in the short term. The price decline from the peak area around 187.70–187.90 shows a strong reaction from a significant horizontal resistance. This area has proven to be a supply zone that pushes the price to reverse direction. After reaching that point, the price experienced a sharp correction before attempting to stabilize at a lower range. This pattern often indicates a distribution phase, especially if the price fails to retest the previous high levels. In terms of horizontal support and resistance, there are several important levels forming the current price movement structure. The nearest resistance is in the range of 186.85–187.30, which previously served as a consolidation area before the price dropped further. If the price is able to rise again and break above this area, the opportunity to retest the previous high will open up again. However, as long as the price remains below that zone, short-term bearish pressure is still likely dominant. On the downside, the nearest support is seen in the area of 186.20–186.30, which is currently being tested and is close to the position of the MA 100. This area is crucial as it serves as a support for the medium-term trend. If the price manages to stay above this zone, it is likely that the market will move sideways again or attempt a rebound. However, if there is a clear breakthrough below the MA 100, the correction is likely to continue towards the next support around 185.70 to 184.80, which is also close to the MA 200. The interaction between the price and the MA 100 is currently key in determining the next direction. If the price is able to move back above the MA 100 with strong momentum, this will indicate that the correction is over and the bullish trend is likely to continue. Conversely, if the price continues to stay below the MA 100 and forms lower highs, the market structure may change to be more bearish in the medium term. Additionally, it should be noted that the previous increase occurred with a fairly steep slope, so the current correction can be considered a normal phase in the trend cycle. Corrections like this are often necessary to form a new base before continuing in the same direction. Overall, EUR/JPY is still in an upward trend on a macro level, but is experiencing corrective pressure in the short term. The MA 100 area is the main determinant of whether the bullish trend will continue or instead enter a deeper consolidation phase. As long as the price remains above the MA 200, the long-term bias remains positive, but further confirmation still depends on the price reaction at the key support and resistance areas that have formed.
