FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD Trend Outlook: The subject of our conversation is the current assessment of the EUR/USD currency pair's pricing behavior. Discussing a shift in the EUR/USD trend for the mid-term outlook seems premature. The current daily uptrend hovers around 1.17217 or slightly below. Without breaking this trend line, the upward momentum may persist. However, sellers will eventually push through and shift the medium-term trend downward. A corrective rebound is likely. Despite this, some analysts predict the pair will break last year's high of 1.19957 and continue its growth. Non-farm payrolls will show growth, meaning the pair could rise in the afternoon as traders anticipate positive U.S. employment results. If that happens, the correction might be brief during the Asian or European sessions. Given this scenario, one could consider buying dollars or waiting for the news and trading based on the market's reaction. On my weekly chart, the pair is moving from a resistance zone stuck in for nearly a year and a half. Hence, my medium-term outlook suggests a decline toward 1.13197. In the short term, it's plausible that Asian and early European markets will sell the pair toward 1.17217.

Buyers, especially those active before the ECB meeting, may re-engage at that point. Today's weaker economic data may also exert some pressure on the dollar. Additionally, tomorrow's release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers could negatively affect the dollar. As a result, we see a corrective rise to around 1.17917, and if that level is likely, we could see further growth to 1.18417. The outcome of Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report will likely clarify the situation. A correction to 1.18317 could occur before the downtrend resumes. Tomorrow, ahead of the U.S. employment data release, we might witness a slight drop in the pair's price, but there is still uncertainty.