FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

GOLD H1 Timeframe: Based on the GOLD price movement on the H1 timeframe, the market structure remains generally bearish, although signs of a short-term recovery have begun to emerge in the latest phase. This is clearly reflected in the price position, which for most of the period has been below the 100-day moving average (MA 100) and 200-day moving average (MA 200). Both moving averages also exhibit downward slopes, particularly the slower 200-day moving average (MA 200), indicating that the primary trend remains under considerable downward pressure. In the initial phase, as seen on the left side of the chart, the price moved in a weakening consolidation pattern, followed by a sharp decline that penetrated several key horizontal support areas. This breakdown reinforced the validity of the bearish trend because it was accompanied by significant momentum. Following this significant decline, the price briefly formed a base in the strong support area around 4500–4519, which serves as a short-term demand zone. From this area, a fairly aggressive rebound occurred, but was unable to change the overall trend structure. The 100-day moving average (blue line) acted as dynamic resistance during the previous downward phase. The price has attempted to rise several times, approaching the moving average (MA), but has failed to consistently break through, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line) is above the 100-day moving average (MA) and acts as a stronger major resistance. As long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA), any increase tends to be corrective and potentially a sell-on-rally opportunity.

Interestingly, the latter part of the chart shows a fairly impulsive upward movement, with the price breaking through the 100-day moving average (MA) and approaching the 200-day moving average (MA). This is an early signal that bearish momentum is weakening, although it is not yet strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. The area around 4650–4665 is crucial horizontal resistance, having previously served as support and subsequently broken. If the price is able to break through and maintain above this zone, the potential for a structural change to a more bullish level will increase. Meanwhile, the nearest support area is located around 4545–4568. This zone previously served as a price rebound point and can be considered a crucial minor support to maintain short-term upward momentum. If the price falls again and breaks through this area, the bullish scenario will weaken, and the possibility of the price retesting the main support around 4500 will be quite high. Overall, the current situation can be categorized as a transitional phase, where the primary trend remains bearish, but selling pressure is starting to ease, and a potential reversal is emerging. Further confirmation is needed, particularly through the price's ability to break through the 200-day moving average (MA) and the nearest horizontal resistance. Without a valid breakout, the current uptrend still risks becoming a retracement within a larger downtrend. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the 100-day moving average (MA) and falls again, the bearish dominance will likely continue, targeting lower support areas.