On the H1 chart, the 200 SMA sits at 184.55, acting as a support level just below the current price. The 50 SMA on the same chart is at 184.30, working as extra support underneath. On the H4 chart, the 200 SMA is at 185.40, serving as a major resistance cap above the market. The 50 SMA on the H4 chart is at 184.55, which lines up perfectly with the H1 200 SMA. This rare double moving average meeting at 184.55 makes this support zone very strong. The current price of 184.88 is above both H1 moving averages but still below the H4 200 SMA at 185.40. This tells us bulls have more work to do to break the bearish trend. On the downside, the key support areas are as follows. First support is at 184.30 to 184.55, where the H1 50 SMA and the double SMA meet, creating a strong floor. Second support is at 183.80 to 184.00, marking the bearish gap level and a middle zone. Third support is at 182.80 to 183.20, a strong demand area near the round number 183.00. More support levels include 182.00 to 182.30, 181.50 to 181.70, and the round number 181.00 to 181.20. On the upside, the key resistance areas are as follows. First resistance is at 185.00 to 185.20, the big psychological barrier just above the current price. Second resistance is at 185.40 to 185.60, where the H4 200 SMA sits as the main ceiling. Third resistance is at 186.00 to 186.20, a recent peak and supply zone. More resistance levels include 186.50 to 186.70, 187.00 to 187.20, and 188.00 to 188.20 as higher targets.
The euro is attracting fresh buyers against the yen after a bearish gap near 183.80 on Monday. The pair has been rising steadily during the first half of the European session. Bulls are trying to build momentum above the high 185.00 level, helped by a weaker yen overall. The yen is underperforming because of economic risks from renewed US-Iran tensions and ongoing energy supply problems in the Strait of Hormuz. But there are two big reasons why the euro may not go much higher. First, many traders think Japanese authorities will step in again to support their currency. Second, the Bank of Japan has a hawkish outlook, which means it may raise rates or take other steps to help the yen. These two factors could stop yen bears from making big bets against the currency. This, in turn, could limit how high EUR/JPY can go, especially with the mixed signals on the charts. The recent break below the 200 SMA was a big trigger for bearish traders. But the drop stalled near the round 182.00 level. The fact that the pair has not yet climbed back above the 200 SMA tells us that any upward moves are still fragile and could be sold into. The most likely path ahead is a test of the 185.40 resistance zone. A clean break above that level would end the current bearish trend and open the door to higher levels like 186.00 and 186.50. But if the pair gets turned away at 185.40, we could see fresh selling push it back down toward the bearish gap near 183.80, then the recent low near 182.00. The 185.40 level is the key number to watch this week. A daily close above would signal a bullish shift, with targets at 186.00 and 186.50. A rejection and drop below 184.55 would keep the bearish trend alive, with targets at 183.80 and 182.00. All eyes are now on any signs of Japanese intervention. The euro may keep pushing toward 185.40 and beyond. Also watch for news on US-Iran talks. A peace deal would boost risk appetite and hurt the yen, sending the pair higher. More fighting would do the opposite. The next few days could set the tone for the weeks ahead.
