FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold On Monday, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) fell more than 1%, and the selling began as soon as Trump described Iran's most recent peace plan as "totally unacceptable." Following that headline, spot Brent crude oil surged back above $103 per barrel, and the inflation trade followed suit. Last week, there was a chance for gold as rates retreated and oil prices fell. On Monday morning, that opportunity quickly closed. Early on Monday, spot gold saw its second consecutive lower low, setting a new major high of $4,764.91. $4,501.04 to $4,764.91 is the new short-term range. The initial downward objective is its retracement zone between $4,632.97 and $4,601.94. In an attempt to create a second, higher bottom, bullish traders would attempt to purchase this dip. Look for the selling to potentially continue into the longer-term 61.8% mark at $4,541.88 if $4,601.94 is unable to hold. The final range of support is between $4,495.33 and $4,401.84. This zone contains $4,481.78. The major traders are keeping a close eye on the level, which is the bull market/bear market territory line. To put it simply, we're still in a bull market if we stay above it. The market becomes pessimistic when it falls below it. The long-term 50% level at $4,744.34 is the first barrier on the upswing. The 50-day moving average at $4,768.63 is next. The 50% barrier at $4,850.68 and the 61.8% level at $5,028.04 provide more resistance. We will be observing trader reaction to $4,632.97 to $4,601.94 as sellers push the downside early on Monday. This ought to establish the mood. A persistent move over $4,632.97 will indicate the presence of buyers, with the first target range being between $4,744.34 and $4,768.60. Increased selling pressure will be indicated by a persistent move below $4,601.84, with possible targets between $4,541.88 and $4,401.84. Pay attention to the moving averages if you wish to avoid the noise caused by the cluster of retracement levels. The 200-day MA at $4,316.04 is support, while the 50-day MA at $4,768.53 is resistance. The moving averages' midpoint is $4,542.28. I'm giving the market a small upside bias because it is now trading on the strong side of the midpoint. Overall, though, I continue to see a buy the dip, sell the bounce strategy. Until bullish news motivates traders to make offers or negative news motivates traders to begin making bids, this kind of transaction is probably going to persist.

Gold As traders await the release of the most recent US consumer inflation data before preparing for the next leg of a directional move, gold (XAU/USD) pulls down from a three-week high that was reached during the Asian session on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar's (USD) reserve currency status is enhanced, and prospects for a US-Iran peace agreement are dampened by the incoming unfavorable headlines surrounding the Middle East situation. Additionally, a diplomatic defeat continues to fuel inflationary concerns and bets for more hawkish central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed), by supporting high crude oil prices. This caps the non-yielding yellow metal and adds to a slight increase in the USD. In fact, amid disputes over Tehran's nuclear program and a stalemate over the vital Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's offer to halt a confrontation that has been going on for more than two months. Additionally, according to CNN, Trump has become irritated with the Iranians' handling of peace talks as well as the ongoing shutdown of the vital waterway. Furthermore, according to some Trump associates, he is now taking the possibility of resuming significant military operations more seriously than he has in recent weeks. This raises concerns about a new conflict escalation and strengthens the USD, which puts some pressure on the price of gold. Technically speaking, on Monday's 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair demonstrated some resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Bullish traders benefit from the subsequent recovery from the April-May decline's 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a breakout through the 61.8% Fibo. level. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $4,742 is the immediate resistance on the upside, with additional obstacles at the 78.6% level near $4,807 and the most recent swing high at $4,890. The 50.0% retracement near $4,696 provides early support on the decline, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,671 and the 38.2% retracement at roughly $4,651. A further significant decline would reveal the structural floor around $4,503 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,594.