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Trader Journals:::2026-06-03T01:28:35

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) in Forex Trading

#USDX Timeframe H4

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) in Forex Trading

Based on the USDX (US Dollar Index) chart on the H4 timeframe, it currently shows that the dollar index is in a solid recovery phase after experiencing dominant bearish pressure throughout April to early May. Analysis using the 100 and 200 Moving Averages (MA) as well as horizontal support and resistance lines indicate that the bullish momentum is gaining stronger footing, although the market still faces some key resistance areas that need to be breached to confirm the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term. From a moving average perspective, the MA 100 shown in blue line is currently moving above the MA 200 shown in red line. This condition is a positive technical signal as it indicates a change in trend structure from bearish to bullish. Additionally, both moving averages are starting to slope upwards clearly, indicating that the average price over recent periods continues to rise. The current price position above the MA 100 and MA 200 further strengthens the view that buyers still have control over market movements. Price action since mid-May shows a significant change in character. After forming a low around the 97.60 to 98.02 area, USDX has managed to create a series of higher lows and higher highs, which are the main characteristics of an uptrend. The increase did not occur vertically, but through a series of healthy consolidation phases. This pattern generally reflects continuous accumulation of buying positions, providing a stronger foundation for the bullish trend compared to overly aggressive and speculative increases. From a horizontal resistance perspective, the 99.22 area is the nearest obstacle currently being tested by the price. This level plays an important role as it has been a point of rejection several times during the late May to early June consolidation phase. The fact that the price is still holding around that area indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. If USDX manages to break and consistently close above 99.22, the opportunity for an increase towards the next resistance at 99.51 will become more open. The 99.51 area is a stronger resistance as it previously acted as the upper limit of price movements before experiencing significant selling pressure in April. If the bullish momentum continues and the price successfully surpasses 99.51, the next target is around 99.97, which is a major resistance and a very important psychological area. A breakthrough above that level will signal that the dollar index has entered a stronger bullish phase and has the potential to continue strengthening towards the psychological level of 100.00 and above. Meanwhile, the nearest support area is at the 98.39 level. This zone currently serves as the main foundation for the ongoing uptrend. In addition to being a horizontal support that has been tested several times, this area is also close to the MA 100 position, making it technically significant. As long as the price remains above 98.39, the bullish structure can still be considered valid. In case of a deeper correction, the next support is at the 98.02 area. This level is an important bounce point that has successfully halted selling pressure several times during May. A stronger support is around 97.60, which is the main basis for the current uptrend formation. A breakthrough below that level will change the technical structure to be more negative and open up the possibility of a return of bearish pressure. However, based on the current chart conditions, this scenario still has a lower probability compared to the continuation of the uptrend. The interaction of price with the MA 100 and MA 200 also provides a constructive picture. Prices consistently moving above both indicators indicate that any corrections that have occurred so far are retracements within the uptrend, not the beginning of a reversal. Furthermore, the position of the MA 100 surpassing the MA 200 indicates that the strength of buyers is becoming more dominant in the medium term. Overall, the technical analysis of USDX on the H4 timeframe still shows a bullish bias. The formation of higher highs and higher lows, support from the price position above the MA 100 and MA 200, and the proximity of the price to the 99.22 resistance indicate that the market is preparing for further breakout attempts. As long as the price can hold above the 98.39 support and not fall back below the MA 100 and MA 200, the opportunity for strengthening towards 99.51 and even 99.97 remains open. Therefore, the current dominant trend still points towards an uptrend, while any short-term corrections are more likely to be viewed as consolidation opportunities within the developing bullish structure.
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