FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD enters the week of Sunday, August 16, 2026, trading near 1.15-1.16, hovering close to two-month highs after gaining roughly 1% over the past four weeks, with the pair having pushed up from a late-June low near 1.1355 to touch levels last seen since June 2026EURUSD increased to 1.16, the highest since June 2026, gaining 1.01% over the past 4 weeks even as it decreased 1.04% over the last 12 months (TRADING ECONOMICS) , a shift reflecting traders navigating developments in the Middle East alongside easing expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike (TRADING ECONOMICS) . The current setup is largely a story of two central banks wrestling with the same inflation problem from different angles: the Fed held rates in a 9-3 vote while the ECB has turned hawkish, with both grappling with oil-driven inflation pressures (Vantage) , and earlier in the month the Fed's split 9-3 vote saw three regional presidents — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan — dissent in favor of a hike, one of the more divided votes in years, even as the decision to hold rates initially weighed on the dollar (Vantage) . On the European side, the ECB's next policy meeting in September has markets weighing whether elevated energy-driven inflation could put another rate hike back on the table (Vantage) , while the euro's broader trajectory has been shaped through the year by shifting Fed and ECB policy expectations, US inflation and labour data, bond yield spreads, geopolitical risk around the Middle East, and tariff-related uncertainty (Capital.com) . Looking at where things could head from here, near-term technical levels are tightly bunched: support sits around 1.15028 with resistance in the 1.1555-1.1590 band (Vantage) , and traders are watching upcoming US data releases and Fed communications, including Jackson Hole commentary and the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 (Vantage) , for the next directional catalyst. Bank forecasts for where the pair lands by year-end remain fairly split, underscoring the uncertainty still baked into the outlook: Bank of America expects EUR/USD to end 2026 near 1.15 on continued dollar strength, ING projects a climb to 1.18 on a softer dollar and more dovish Fed path, while UBS sees risks balanced around 1.20 (Bestexchangerates) , and other independent forecasters place the pair anywhere from the low-1.10s to as high as 1.20-1.25 depending on how aggressively the Fed ultimately cuts and whether the ECB follows through on hawkish signals. In practical terms, this means EUR/USD this Sunday sits in a relatively calm consolidation phase after a choppy summer, with the pair essentially rangebound between roughly 1.15 and 1.16 as markets digest a hawkish-leaning hold from the Fed and a similarly cautious ECB, both still contending with inflation that remains stickier than either institution would like; the coming two to three weeks — bracketed by Jackson Hole, the next US jobs and inflation prints, and the September FOMC and ECB meetings — are likely to prove decisive in determining whether the pair breaks higher toward the 1.18-1.20 zone favored by some banks or instead drifts back toward the 1.10-1.13 area flagged by more bearish technical scenarios, making this a genuine inflection window for anyone tracking the world's most heavily traded currency pair. This is a sensitive, fast-moving market topic — forecasts vary widely across sources and none of this should be taken as financial advice or a signal to trade.