FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin has been on a tear, and according to CoinShares, the rally is being driven far more by shifting macroeconomic winds than by anything happening inside the crypto world itself. The firm pointed out that recent U.S. economic data has chipped away at the case for more Fed tightening, with softer inflation and weak nonfarm payrolls raising hopes that the central bank could pivot toward a friendlier policy stance. Bitcoin is especially sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields, so that shift in rate expectations has given the top cryptocurrency a serious boost. The Treasury market is telling the same story, with short-term yields pulling back as investors stop pricing in further hikes, even as long-term yields keep climbing on worries about America's fiscal health. Beyond the macro backdrop, CoinShares also flagged that Bitcoin's positioning has improved, with large whales flipping from selling back to accumulating. That said, the scale of the buying has not yet reached the kind of level that would suggest a sustained breakout is right around the corner. Still, the shift has helped support prices and pushed Bitcoin cleanly above its 200-day moving average, a level that has historically been followed by stronger gains once broken. CoinShares sees Bitcoin staying rangebound for now, with $80,000 acting as the key resistance hurdle, and a decisive push above that would likely need the Fed to more clearly signal that the risk of additional tightening has faded. On the institutional side, demand is picking up again, with digital asset investment products pulling in $2.2 billion this week, the biggest single-week inflow of the year. Bitcoin-focused products accounted for $1.6 billion of that total, bringing year-to-date flows back into positive territory after a long stretch of soft demand. The firm also noted that U.S. regulatory moves, including progress on the CLARITY Act, could end up mattering more for Ethereum, Solana, and the broader altcoin space than for Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $78,155 level, with the moving average setup across multiple timeframes showing a market that has broken out aggressively to the upside and is now consolidating after a powerful rally. On the hourly chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average sits at $74,750, resting well below the current price and acting as the nearest dynamic support cushion, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average is positioned at $66,700, providing a much deeper structural floor that was reclaimed during the surge. The 50 SMA holding far above the 200 SMA keeps an exceptionally strong golden cross in place on the hourly timeframe, signaling that short-term buying momentum remains extremely powerful. On the four-hour chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average rests at $67,000, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average sits at $65,100, both positioned far below the current price and climbing in the same direction, reinforcing the bullish medium-term structure. The massive gap between the four-hour SMAs and the current price shows just how explosive this move has been, with the shorter average now trading well above the longer one and confirming that the medium-term uptrend is firmly entrenched. Looking at the horizontal levels that exist separately from the moving averages, the first resistance barrier sits at the $80,000 psychological round-figure mark that CoinShares has highlighted as the key hurdle. Above that, the next targets are $82,000 and $84,000, with the $85,000 area acting as the ultimate near-term objective. On the support side, the first floor is at $76,500, followed by the $75,000 level and the $74,750 hourly 50 SMA. Below that, the next cushions are at $72,000 and $70,000, with the $67,000 four-hour 50 SMA and the $66,700 hourly 200 SMA forming a reinforced support zone, and the $65,100 four-hour 200 SMA acting as the ultimate structural floor. For now, the bulls are firmly in charge, and a daily close above $80,000 would likely trigger another wave of buying toward $84,000 and beyond, while a pullback toward $74,750 should find solid support from dip buyers looking to add to positions.