FX.co ★ GBP/USD

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the GBP/USD Pair GBP/USD remained relatively stable near the 1.3590 level as traders scaled back expectations for another Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike this year. Market attention has now shifted toward the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium in the United States, where investors are waiting for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh. His speech could provide fresh direction for the British pound and the US dollar, particularly as markets continue to reassess the outlook for monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors will closely watch the Fed Chairman’s remarks for clues about his view of the US economy, the future path of interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s strategy for bringing inflation back toward its 2% target. Any hawkish comments suggesting that interest rates may remain elevated for longer, or that further policy tightening is still possible, could offer renewed support to the US dollar. In the United Kingdom, market expectations for additional Bank of England tightening have continued to decline. According to LSEG data, markets are pricing in around 24.7 basis points of rate increases by December, suggesting that investors are no longer fully expecting a standard 25-basis-point BoE rate hike before the end of the year. This shift brings market pricing closer to the views of many economists, who have consistently indicated in Reuters surveys that the Bank of England is more likely to leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year as policymakers assess inflation, wage growth, and broader economic conditions. Strategists at UOB Group noted that GBP/USD extended its recent decline, with the British pound falling to a low of 1.3571 during the previous session before recovering slightly. The pair eventually closed near 1.3594, showing only a modest daily decline of around 0.03%. Instead, GBP/USD is more likely to enter a period of consolidation and trade within the 1.3570–1.3620 range rather than repeat the sharper decline seen earlier in the week. GBP/USD is trading near 1.3590 after retreating from recent multi-month highs in the 1.3650–1.3670 area. On the H4 timeframe, the broader market structure remains constructive and continues to develop within an ascending channel. The pair is still holding above the rising 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), positioned broadly within the 1.3460–1.3530 region depending on price development. This moving average continues to act as an important source of dynamic support, suggesting that the medium-term bullish trend remains intact despite the recent correction. The 20-period SMA on the H4 chart is positioned closer to the 1.3550–1.3560 area and has become an important short-term technical reference point. GBP/USD is currently testing or hovering slightly above this moving average following the latest pullback, indicating that buyers are still defending the broader uptrend. Key demand is visible between 1.3550 and 1.3580, where previous swing lows and confluence with the channel’s mid-line have previously attracted buying interest. If selling pressure increases, a deeper demand zone can be found near 1.3500–1.3520. On the H1 Chart, the GBP/USD outlook appears more neutral and consolidative, with a slightly cautious short-term tone. Price has moved into a tighter trading range after facing rejection from the 1.3640–1.3650 supply zone, which includes previous local highs and the upper boundary of the ascending structure. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs are currently clustered around the 1.3590–1.3600 area, highlighting a period of reduced momentum and uncertainty as buyers and sellers compete for short-term control. Resistance for GBP/USD is located between 1.3615 and 1.3630, an area that represents the recent H1 consolidation ceiling and a previous support level that may now act as resistance. A stronger supply zone remains positioned around 1.3650–1.3670, where the pair previously encountered significant selling pressure. A sustained move above the 1.3630 level could improve short-term bullish momentum, while a clear break through the higher supply zone would strengthen the case for a renewed test of recent highs. On the downside, initial support is located between 1.3570 and 1.3585, where recent intraday lows align with the H4 20-period SMA and provide an important short-term demand area. Below this region, the stronger 1.3550 support level remains critical for maintaining the broader bullish structure. However, a sustained break below the 50-period SMA confluence and the 1.3550 area could weaken the technical outlook and expose the pair to deeper corrective selling toward the 1.3500 level.