FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold H4: A Potential Bounce Setup Near Key Support Gold is currently trading around 4444 on the H4 timeframe after experiencing a sharp correction from the recent high near 4670. Despite this pullback, the broader market structure remains bullish because price is still trading well above the 200-period moving average, while the 100-period moving average continues to slope upward. The recent decline has brought price back toward an important support zone around 4405–4440. This area deserves close attention because it previously acted as a significant breakout region. The latest candles show hesitation around this level, suggesting that sellers may be losing some momentum after the aggressive drop. For the bullish scenario, the first confirmation would be a strong H4 rejection from the 4405–4440 region followed by a sustained move back above 4485. A clean break and close above 4485 could indicate that buyers are returning and may open the way toward 4565, followed by the 4645–4670 resistance zone. If momentum becomes strong, a retest of the recent high cannot be ruled out.

However, traders should not ignore the downside risk. If gold fails to hold 4405 and starts closing H4 candles below this area, the bounce setup would weaken considerably. In that situation, the next important areas to monitor would be around 4325 and 4245, where the rising 200-period moving average provides additional structural support. At the current level, I would avoid chasing the market after such a large correction. Instead, the better approach is to wait for confirmation from the 4405–4440 support zone. A bullish rejection followed by a move above 4485 would provide a much stronger technical signal for continuation. Overall, the H4 trend remains constructive, but confirmation is essential. The key battle is now between buyers defending support and sellers attempting to push price below it.