Weekly and H4 Ethereum Analysis As on 19/09/2026 1. Price at 2609 After 2656 Liquidity Sweep Daily spot trades at 2609.22 on H4, open 2630.30, high 2638.42, low 2607.11, with small bearish body closing near low after sharp expansion. H4 structure shows price trading 29 pips below day high after failing to hold above 2644. Weekly trades at 2608.55, open 2511.13, high 2644.28, low 2356.20, with strong bullish weekly candle with long lower wick showing demand at 2356-2400. The 2656 high on 11 Sep 12:00 H4 represents ultimate buy-side liquidity sweep above 2530-2550 resistance and 2528 previous high from 8 Sep. The 2644 high on 18 Sep 04:00 represents secondary failed sweep attempt above 2620 consolidation high. Current price at 2608-2609 is trading 35 pips below H4 resistance 2644 and 180 pips below Weekly midline 2780 but 200 pips above H4 demand 2400, indicating bullish continuation after accumulation, but entering overbought extension.
2. Weekly Still Bullish Above 1623 Demand Weekly structure remains bullish recovery inside larger downtrend from 4860 July 2025 high to 1623 June 2026 low. Weekly chart shows price consolidated at 1623-1925 demand zone from 28 Apr to 9 Aug with 14 weeks of small bodies and Doji indicating accumulation, then massive bullish displacement on 9 Aug to 18 Sep from 1925 to 2644 with volume, taking buy-stop liquidity above 2356 and 2511 previous Weekly resistance. This is similar to our Ripple recovery from 1.0265 to 1.6865 but with smaller 62% expansion from 1623 low. Current Weekly close at 2608 above 2400 support and above 2227 minor support keeps bullish structure intact despite pullback risk from 2644. The 1623 low marks sell-side liquidity / major demand where late short stops concentrated and breakdown below 1450 would expose 1300 psychological. Until Weekly closes below 2227, higher-low sequence from 1623 to 1925 to 2356 remains valid. Stochastic at 88.92 on Weekly indicates overbought but with bullish cross holding above 80. 3. H4 Swing High Swept at 2656 and 2644 H4 Swing Highs at 2656 on 11 Sep 12:00 with long upper wick, 2621 on 14 Sep 04:00 with shooting star, 2545 on 6 Sep 12:00, and 2644 Weekly top on 18 Sep form layered buy-side liquidity above 2600. The push to 2656 swept buy stops above 2550 previous high and above 2530 consolidation high from 11 Sep 09:00-12 Sep 12:00, taking liquidity before immediate 150-pip reversal to 2500 on 12 Sep 20:00. Every prior high at 2530, 2515, 2490 now acts as resistance reference. Current H4 price at 2609 trades 47 pips below 2656 top, forming lower high below ascending H4 structure but still higher low sequence intact. The 2656 top on H4 aligns with Weekly 2600-2750 resistance zone that capped Apr 2026 rally, making it confluence resistance where Weekly supply meets H4 buy-side sweep.
4. Buy-Side Liquidity Grab Failed at 2656 / 2644 Most important liquidity event is failed buy-side sweep at 2656 H4 and 2644 Weekly double top. H4 chart shows bullish displacement from 2385 low on 15 Sep 12:00 to 2656 high on 11 Sep and again to 2644 on 18 Sep with volume, taking buy-stop liquidity above 2550-2621 supply zone marked by long wicks, then immediate bearish rejection with small body at 2609 on 18 Sep 08:00 and drop to 2607. Weekly chart shows similar pattern: bullish displacement from 1925 low on 9 Aug to 2608 high with volume, taking buy stops above 2356-2511, but Stochastic at 92 overbought indicating liquidity grab zone. This mirrors EUR/USD failure at 1.16415 and our Ripple failure at 1.6865. Now buy-side liquidity above 2656 and 2644 has been taken and remains ultimate resistance where trapped longs will exit. Volume bars on H4 show increased volume on 11 Sep spike and 14 Sep spike with no follow-through, confirming stop-hunt behavior.
5. Supply Block at 2750-2950 Strong Resistance & Supply Order Block at 2750-2950 top zone, where sellers defended after recovery from 1623 low. This zone marks last bearish Weekly candle before Nov 2025 drop and Nov 2025 high 3400-3650 origin. Current Weekly shows price rejected from this supply area in Jan 2025 with bearish engulfing after sweep to 4048, and now trades 342 pips below at 2608. Secondary supply at 2600-2656 and 2528 midline also act as resistance. Current Weekly recovery from 2356 to 2608 approaches minor supply at 2600-2644 where previous support from Apr 2026 now becomes resistance, which will likely cap bounce as lower high below 2750. Weekly supply block at 2750-2950 remains ultimate sell zone where buy-side liquidity was taken in Dec 2024 and July 2025 with long upper wicks. Until Weekly closes above 2750 with displacement, this supply remains active.
6. Bearish FVGs at 2620-2656 Bearish FVGs created during sharp drops and wick rejections. First Bearish FVG at 2620-2656 from 11 Sep 12:00 wick spike, second at 2550-2621 from 14 Sep 04:00 breakdown, third at 2510-2545 from 6 Sep consolidation breakdown. These imbalances act as resistance on pullbacks. Price recovering from 2385 low to 2609 is entering lower edge of Bearish FVG cluster at 2607-2644, explaining why momentum is stalling at 2638 high with small-bodied H4 candles at 2609. Filling these FVGs with weak bullish momentum would indicate corrective rally rather than reversal to 2950. Weekly needs strong displacement above 2750 to fill major FVG at 2750-3142 from Dec 2025 drop. The long upper wick on 11 Sep with 2656 high and low volume on pullback shows inefficiency left behind that sellers can use.
7. Bullish FVG Demand at 2385-2476 Bullish FVG demand at 2385-2476 created during strong upward displacement on 16-18 Sep when ETH rallied from 2385 to 2608 and then to 2644. This zone was formed during breakout phase and represents area where bullish momentum left imbalance that was not fully mitigated during retracement. Importance increases now that price is trading at 2609 after bouncing from 2385 low, as it becomes first major demand that buyers defended to prevent deeper correction toward 2227. Controlled pullback into 2385-2476 followed by bullish rejection with H4 bullish engulfing would suggest buyers defending higher-low structure. Decisive H4 breakdown through 2385 with strong bearish displacement would indicate bullish momentum weakening significantly and price searching for deeper demand at 2227 and 1925-1623. Volume on 16 Sep 20:00 to 18 Sep 04:00 shows increasing bullish volume supporting this FVG as valid demand.
8. Order Block Support at 1623 Major Low Bullish Order Block at 1623-1925 green zone, which sits beneath recent consolidation at 1623-1750 and represents historical area from which buying pressure emerged 9 June before eventual expansion toward 2644. This zone is origin of bullish expansion from 1623 to 2644, making it meaningful demand reference validated by massive bullish displacement Weekly candle 9 Aug. Price moved away from this region with strong bullish displacement and established higher levels at 2227-2608, validating it as demand after months below 2227 from 28 Dec to 9 Aug. If market experiences deeper correction below 2385, this Bullish Order Block at 1623-1925 could become important area for buyers to step in again, as seen with basing from May to Aug with 11 weeks of accumulation and high volume bars at bottom. Major demand at 1623 is also sell-side liquidity sweep low where late short stops concentrated, and breakdown below 1450 would expose 1321 psychological. Stochastic at 20 on H4 on 15 Sep marked this demand with bullish cross.
9. Swing Low Swept at 2385 Chart contains several marked Swing Low formations: Swing Lows at 2385 on 15 Sep 12:00 H4 low, 2405 on 15 Sep 16:00, 1623 on 9 Jun Weekly low, 1607 on 23 Mar 2025 wick low demonstrate areas where selling pressure was absorbed and buyers regained control with strong displacement. These lows define whether bullish recovery structure is still intact. As long as higher Swing Low at 2385 and 1623 remain protected with Weekly closes above, larger recovery attempt toward 2750-2950 remains possible despite overbought Stochastic at 92. A bearish retracement toward 2385 does not automatically invalidate bullish recovery trend; instead, reaction at 2385 becomes important. If price creates higher low around 2385 and then breaks upward again above 2644 midline and 2750, bullish structure for Weekly becomes stronger. Conversely, if Swing Lows at 2385 and 1623 are broken with strong bearish displacement, market could transition back to bearish expansion toward 1925.
10. Break of Structure to Upside Weekly Then Consolidation H4 Overall price action from 7 Sep 2025 to 18 Sep 2026 shows downtrend from 4860 July 2025 high to 1623 June 2026 low, then higher-low recovery from 1623 to 1925 to 2356 to 2608, indicating Break of Structure to upside Weekly. Most recent H4 price action shows bullish Break of Structure with price breaking above 2500 and 2530 and holding 2476, 2490, 2503 very quickly after accumulation at 2385 double bottom. This indicates lower-low development from 2515 to 2385 has been completed and market structure shifted from bearish to bullish on lower timeframe. Latest move from 2385 to 2644 is particularly significant because it broke beyond previous visible higher high at 2550 and 2621, creating new higher high on H4 timeframe. That creates new bullish structural expansion on H4, although Weekly still needs to break 2750 to confirm larger BOS. If price holds above 2476 after pullback and holds 2607 low, break of structure is confirmed and H4 continuing toward deeper expansion toward 2750 while Weekly remains bullish.
11. Demand Zone 1623-2227 Combination of Bullish FVG at 2385-2476 and Bullish Order Blocks at 1623-1925 and 2227 creates series of potential demand areas beneath current price at 2608 that form stacked green demand zone marked on Weekly chart from 1623 to 2227. These zones are important because current bullish move from 1623 has become extended by 985 pips and healthy market often produces retracements that return toward previous demand areas before deciding on continuation or reversal. On this chart, first area to monitor during weakness is immediate demand at 2476-2528 where H4 low was swept with long wick on 15 Sep. Beneath that, 2385, 2227, and 1925-1623 low become deeper demand references where breaking below 2476 would expose 2385, 2227, and 1925. Farther price moves into these deeper zones, more significant test becomes. Bullish reaction accompanied by renewed displacement from 2385 or 1925 with H4 bullish engulfing would strengthen case that drop from 2644 is just correction and Weekly bottom at 1623 is confirmed. Stochastic reset to 20 at those levels would be ideal.
12. Resistance Now 2644-2750 The $2644-2750 region is particularly important because current price at 2608 is pressing directly below this previous support-turned-resistance area where Weekly high at 2644 and previous Dec 2024 high at 4048-2750 sit, while major supply sits above at 2750-2950 red box. Combination of round number at 2600, previous resistance that has now become support at 2528 midline, and Bearish FVG makes this region clearest decision point for any continuation. Buyers need to demonstrate acceptance above 2644 and 2750 to establish stronger continuation toward 2950-3400 and to reverse bearish structure from 4860 rejection. Sellers, meanwhile, need rejection and bearish displacement at 2644-2750 to demonstrate supply zone still active and Weekly bounce is just corrective. Small wick above 2750 followed by close below it would be more consistent with lower-high and liquidity sweep rejection scenario that occurred at 2656 and 2621. Conversely, multiple Weekly candles holding above 2750 would reduce immediate bearish significance and open path back toward 3142-3444.
13. Bullish Case Needs Close Above 2656 / 2750 Bullish scenario requires price to successfully reclaim 2656 and overcome Strong Resistance & Supply Order Block at 2750-2950 rather than merely spiking through 2644 high. Ideally, market would produce convincing H4 close above 2644 area and then above 2656 and 2750 top with strong bullish displacement, and then demonstrate that former resistance at 2528-2600 can act as support during subsequent retest, which would indicate breakdown below 2500 on 15 Sep was false breakdown or bear trap. Such behavior would indicate recent recovery from 1623 has been absorbed and ETH is resuming recovery toward 2950-3400, which was buy-side liquidity sweep target. In that case, structure would remain bullish recovery, with previous support at 2385 becoming potential demand reference for trailing longs. Key confirmation would be acceptance above 2656 H4 top and 2750 Weekly top, not simply existence of long bullish wick. Traders following SMC logic would want to see displacement above 2656, controlled retracement holding above 2528, and renewed bullish reaction with Stochastic holding above 60 rather than chasing long at 2609 without confirmation.
14. Bearish Case Targets 2385 Break Alternative bearish scenario begins if price fails to hold 2644 resistance and 2609 current level after double top at 2656. In that case, current movement becomes confirmed double top and bearish displacement after buy-side liquidity sweep at 2656 and 2644. First signs would be rejection wicks at 2644-2750, strong bearish H4 candles closing below 2528 and 2476, and return beneath Bullish FVG at 2385-2476. If bearish momentum develops with strong displacement similar to 10 Sep candle from 2476 to 2385, price could begin moving toward marked support levels where breaking below 2385 would expose 2227 and 1925-1623 demand. This would not automatically mean complete trend reversal to new yearly lows at 1623; initially, it would simply represent correction from overextended recovery that failed at 2644 resistance, which is healthy before next leg up. Genuine bearish structural transition toward 1623 would require significant Swing Lows at 2385 and 1925 to break and fail to recover, with Weekly Stochastic crossing down below 80 from 92 overbought.
15. Higher High at 2608 After Major Accumulation Overall, combined Weekly at 2608 and H4 at 2609 show ETH in strong bullish recovery from 1623 major demand after 62% rally to 2656 buy-side liquidity sweep, currently pulling back and consolidating at critical decision zone $2600-2750 after failed H4 top at 2656 but with immediate bullish momentum holding above 2476. Sequence of higher lows from 1623 to 1925 to 2356 to 2385, mitigation of sell-side liquidity below 1623, Bullish FVG at 2385-2476, Bullish Order Blocks at 1623-1925 green zone, and repeated upward expansions with massive bullish displacement 9 Aug-18 Sep demonstrates buyers had control until 2656. However, latest H4 rally pushed directly into minor supply at 2600-2656 with short-term rejection, making this most important area on entire lower timeframe chart. Visible liquidity sweep above 2621 that failed means traders should be careful about assuming immediate continuation to 2950 without pause. Bullish case stronger only if price establishes acceptance above 2656 and 2750 and successfully retests 2528 as support, targeting 2950-3444. Bearish case stronger if price rejects 2644-2750 supply zone and breaks below 2476 and 2385, opening retracement toward 2227 and 1925 demand where better risk-to-reward longs will emerge. Therefore, primary trend remains Weekly bullish recovery, but immediate H4 location at 2609 is higher high at resistance confluence $2644, highly sensitive to rejection or breakout confirmation. Most important principle is to wait for market reaction around marked $2644-2750 resistance and $2385-1925 support rather than treating either scenario as guaranteed.
