Technical Analysis 10 October 2026 USD/JPY H-1 The USD/JPY 1-hour chart displays a recovery effort following a sharp pullback to the 157.580–157.790 support floor. Price action has crossed above its dynamic 50-period Moving Average and is consolidating around the horizontal pivot baseline at 158.302, directly under upper resistance near 158.356–158.420.
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * V-Shaped Recovery: Buyers defended the 157.580 structural swing low, launching a sequence of higher lows that carried price back toward the upper range boundary. * Horizontal Pivot Baseline: The green horizontal line at 158.302 acts as the central pivot. A confirmed hourly candle close above the red resistance line at 158.356 validates bullish breakout continuity toward 158.630. * Moving Average Dynamic: The 50-period moving average (red line) is curving upward beneath price action near 158.210, offering immediate dynamic trailing support.
2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Currently sits at 53.83, holding above the neutral 50 line to confirm steady upside momentum without indicating overbought conditions. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits in positive territory at 0.0537 just below its signal line (0.0659). The Bears Power indicator reads -0.0275, showing minimal downside pressure as buyers absorb recent pullbacks.
3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (Primary Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly above 158.380 (confirming a breakout over 158.356 resistance). * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 158.410 (or Buy Limit on a retest of 158.300). * Stop Loss (SL): 157.950 (placed safely below local structure and dynamic MA support). * Take Profit (TP1): 158.630 (retest of major resistance top). * Take Profit (TP2): 159.000 (extended upside projection). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2)
Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Contrarian Short Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bearish rejection pattern closing cleanly below 158.180 (losing dynamic MA support). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 158.150. * Stop Loss (SL): 158.500 (placed above resistance boundary at 158.420). * Take Profit (TP1): 157.790 (intermediate structural support floor). * Take Profit (TP2): 157.580 (retest of major spike low). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.2 (TP2)
Execution Summary Focus closely on how the hourly candle closes relative to 158.302 and 158.356. A confirmed breakout above 158.380 opens the path toward 158.630, whereas a drop below 158.180 re-engages downside pressure toward 157.790.
