Technical Analysis 10 October 2026 AUD/USD H-1 The AUD/USD 1-hour chart displays a solid bullish recovery following a sharp drop to the 0.69350 support floor. Price action has ascended firmly above its dynamic 50-period Moving Average and is consolidating between the horizontal pivot line at 0.69812 and the immediate resistance boundary at 0.69860, establishing a crucial inflection zone for short-term direction. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * V-Shaped Recovery: After defending the 0.69350 multi-session low, buyers initiated a steady rally characterized by higher highs and higher lows. * Horizontal Pivot Baseline: The green horizontal support line at 0.69812 and red resistance line at 0.69860 form a tight decision channel. A confirmed hourly candle close above 0.69860 reinforces bullish breakout continuity toward 0.69950. * Moving Average Dynamic: The 50-period moving average (red line) is curving upward underneath recent price candles around 0.69710, offering strong dynamic trailing support. 2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Currently reads 56.74, holding comfortably above the neutral 50 line to confirm healthy bullish sentiment without hitting overbought territory. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits in positive territory at 0.000486 above its signal line (0.000474). The Bears Power indicator reads positive at 0.000242, reflecting buyer dominance as pullbacks remain shallow. 3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (Primary Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly above 0.69870 (confirming a breakout over 0.69860 resistance). * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 0.69900 (or Buy Limit on a pullback to 0.69820). * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69550 (placed safely below local structure and dynamic MA support). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69950 (retest of major resistance top). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.70200 (extended upside projection). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2) Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Contrarian Short Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bearish rejection pattern closing cleanly below 0.69700 (losing dynamic MA support). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 0.69670. * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69980 (placed safely above the resistance boundary). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69470 (intermediate structural support floor). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.69350 (retest of major swing low). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.3 (TP2) Execution Summary Focus closely on how the hourly candle closes relative to 0.69812 and 0.69860. A verified breakout above 0.69870 opens the path toward 0.69950, whereas a breakdown below 0.69700 re-engages downside pressure toward 0.69470.
