Technical Analysis 13 October 2026 AUD/USD H-1 The AUD/USD 1-hour chart demonstrates a steady recovery attempt following a pull-down to the 0.69515 local support floor. Price action has crossed above its dynamic 50-period Moving Average and is currently testing the major horizontal pivot line at 0.69609, establishing a critical breakout decision point for traders. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * Support Defense & Recovery: After finding solid buying liquidity near 0.69515, AUD/USD initiated a steady upward bounce, reclaiming dynamic moving average support and pushing back into the central pivot region around 0.69609. * Horizontal Pivot Baseline: The horizontal line at 0.69609 serves as the primary structural boundary. A clean hourly candle close above this level confirms a bullish recovery toward upper resistance at 0.69690 and 0.69865, while a rejection keeps the pair constrained. * Moving Average Alignment: The 50-period moving average (red line) is flattening underneath price action around 0.69550–0.69590, providing immediate dynamic trailing support. 2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Reads 46.70, ticking upward from sub-30 levels toward the neutral 50 line, indicating a notable reduction in selling pressure and developing upside momentum. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits at -0.000304 above its signal line (-0.000465), forming a bullish crossover in negative territory. The Bears Power indicator reads -0.000068, confirming that bearish strength has nearly evaporated as buyers regain equilibrium. 3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Primary Breakout Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly above 0.69650 (confirming a hold over the baseline pivot). * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 0.69680 (or Buy Limit on a retest of 0.69600). * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69300 (placed safely below structural swing support at 0.69340). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69865 (retest of major intermediate high). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.70040 (extended structural resistance target). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2) Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Contrarian Short Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bearish rejection pattern closing cleanly below 0.69500 (losing dynamic MA support). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 0.69470. * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69750 (placed safely above local horizontal baseline resistance). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69340 (retest of lower structural support floor). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.69165 (extended downside projection). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.3 (TP2) Execution Summary Focus closely on how the hourly candle closes relative to 0.69609. A verified H1 close above 0.69650 favors long setups targeting 0.69865 and 0.70040, whereas a breakdown below 0.69500 re-engages sell pressure toward 0.69340.
