Technical Analysis 16 October 2026 AUD/USD H-1 The AUD/USD 1-hour chart displays a strong V-shaped recovery rally after bouncing off recent low extremes near 0.68990. Price action has crossed back above its short-term moving average line and is currently testing a key horizontal support-turned-resistance pivot near 0.69432, opening up clear breakout and pullback opportunities. 1. Core Price Action & Structure * Current Price: 0.69432 * Immediate Resistance Zone: 0.69740 – 0.69990 (Major supply region corresponding to previous swing highs where prior selling initiated). * Immediate Support Zone: 0.69240 – 0.68990 (Crucial demand area aligned with short-term moving average support and reaction bottom lows). * Moving Average Dynamic: Price has successfully reclaimed its position above the short-term moving average line, establishing immediate dynamic support on the hourly timeframe. 2. Indicator Confluence * Relative Strength Index (RSI - 14): Currently reading 57.81. This shifts momentum solidly into bullish territory above the neutral 50 level, leaving room for further upside expansion before reaching overbought conditions. * MACD (12, 26, 9): Positioned at -0.000141 / -0.000754. Although operating below zero, the signal line is curling upward with shrinking negative histogram bars, confirming a fresh bullish momentum shift. * Bears Power (13): Reads 0.001143, demonstrating that buyers have regained full operational control from sellers. 3. Strategic Entry Scenarios Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Long Entry) * Entry Trigger: A sustained 1-hour candle close above 0.69470 or a minor dip-buy retest near 0.69240 at dynamic moving average support. * Stop Loss: 0.68990 (placed safely below immediate support and the low wicks). * Take Profit Targets: * Target 1: 0.69740 * Target 2: 0.69990 Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Short Entry) * Entry Trigger: A 1-hour candle closing firmly back below 0.69240, confirming resistance at 0.69432 and a breakdown under dynamic support. * Stop Loss: 0.69500 (placed above immediate resistance). * Take Profit Targets: * Target 1: 0.68990 * Target 2: 0.68750 4. Executive Summary The AUD/USD hourly chart reflects a bullish shift in market sentiment as price rebounds from its bottom low at 0.68990 to retest 0.69432. With RSI at 57.81 and Bears Power positive, buyers hold short-term control. However, trading right at the central horizontal line carries temporary resistance risk. Traders should wait for a verified 1-hour close above 0.69470 or a retest of 0.69240 to secure high-probability trades with a strict 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.
