FX.co ★ EUR/GBP
Trader Journals:::
EUR/GBP
EURGBP IN H3 TIME FRAME ANALYSIS FOR SWING TRADE On the EURGBP H3 chart the market is showing a clear bearish downtrend respecting a descending trendline resistance followed by a corrective bounce at lows, with price now consolidating below the trendline and setting up for a potential fakeout retest before continuation down towards demand. Looking at price action on the left side, we can see a strong bearish move with red candles from above 0.83996 down to 0.83826, 0.83741, 0.83656 with lower highs forming. After a small corrective bounce with green candles up to 0.83826, the downtrend continued with red bodies down to 0.83741, 0.83656, 0.83571, then another leg down with red candles from 0.83571 down to 0.83401, 0.83316 with long lower wicks around 0.83316 showing initial support. A sharp sell off occurred with a large red candle from 0.83401 down to 0.83231 sweeping sell side liquidity below the grey zone. After that capitulation buyers stepped in with green candles from 0.83231 up to 0.83316, 0.83401, 0.83571 retesting the broken support turned resistance with green bodies and small wicks. That recovery failed near the red trendline around 0.83571 with red rejection back down to 0.83486, 0.83401, then choppy consolidation around 0.83316 to 0.83486 with small green and red bodies and long wicks around 0.83281 showing accumulation. The most recent action shows a green push from 0.83316 up to 0.83571 breaking slightly above the teal line at 0.83544, now holding around 0.83544 with small green body trying to stabilize. The key level on this chart is the grey shaded area between approximately 0.83360 and 0.83420. This area is acting as a critical demand zone and support turned weak support after breakdown. On the left side it was the low of the downtrend where price consolidated with red and green bodies around 0.83360 to 0.83420 before the wick down to 0.83231, marking where buyers attempted to defend. On the right side it has become the origin of multiple wicks and retests with long lower wicks around 0.83281 to 0.83420 showing liquidity grabs. The red descending trendline from 0.83826 down to 0.83510 and 0.83401 is the main resistance that has capped every corrective bounce, with price respecting it with red rejection around 0.83571. The horizontal teal line at 0.83544 is the mid level resistance price is now testing from below after breaking above it. The red arrow you have drawn perfectly illustrates the anticipated bearish continuation with a liquidity grab setup. You show price pulling up from current levels around 0.83544 towards 0.83600, forming a small W-shaped pullback down to 0.83450, then another sharp push up to 0.83650 to sweep buy side above the highs and test the trendline area around 0.83571 to 0.83656, and then a sharp drop back down towards 0.83401 and the grey demand zone. This is a textbook fakeout, stop hunt and continuation down pattern where price taps into trendline resistance and recent highs to trap late buyers before continuation lower towards demand. The expected scenario from here is a corrective push towards trendline resistance before further downside. If price pushes up from 0.83544 towards 0.83600 and 0.83650 into the trendline confluence between 0.83571 and 0.83656, that zone should be viewed as a potential high probability short opportunity. On lower timeframes like M30 or H1 look for bearish rejection such as bearish engulfing, pin bar with long upper wick, or an M top as you drew. If price fails to reclaim above 0.83656 and shows a market structure shift back below 0.83544, sellers should step back in to push down towards 0.83500 initially, then break below 0.83401 towards the grey zone 0.83360 to 0.83420 and potentially sweep lows towards 0.83231. Overall bias remains bearish as long as price holds below the red descending trendline around 0.83600, with invalidation being a clean H3 close above 0.83680 which would suggest a deeper squeeze towards 0.83741.