Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s britskou librou
The price test at 1.3439 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair never developed a significant upward move.
The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4.25%. However, policymakers expressed concern about a downturn in the UK labor market. The Bank's decision was expected and reflects its aim to strike a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding risks of an economic downturn. Keeping the rate steady will allow time to assess the effect of previous rate reductions and avoid putting excessive strain on an economy already under multiple negative influences. The central bank is especially concerned about the labor market situation. A decline in job vacancies and a rise in unemployment could foreshadow a deeper economic crisis. Weak economic growth also poses a serious challenge. Geopolitical tensions add further uncertainty and worsen the economic outlook. Sanctions, trade wars, and political instability negatively impact the global economy and pressure the UK.
Today, figures are expected to be released regarding the change in the UK retail sales volume, which includes fuel costs and public sector net borrowing. This data will serve as important indicators of the current state of the UK economy, especially given the ongoing challenges with inflation and the potential for recession. Fuel-adjusted retail sales volume reflects consumer activity, a key economic growth driver. A drop in this figure could indicate reduced consumer purchasing power, driven by rising prices and future uncertainty. Meanwhile, net public sector borrowing will show the extent to which the government needs to fund its expenditures through debt. A high level of borrowing could imply increased government spending to support the economy but may also raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of public finances.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný scenár
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today around the 1.3501 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3552 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3552, I intend to exit the buy trade and open a sell position in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the level). Bullish expectations for the pound today depend on strong data.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3477 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward 1.3501 and 1.3552 may follow.
Predajný scenár
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3477 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a swift decline. The main target for sellers will be 1.3437, where I intend to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Selling is appropriate after weak data.
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3501 twice a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3477 and 1.3437 may follow.
Čo je na grafe:
- Tenká zelená čiara predstavuje vstupnú cenu, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj.
- Hrubá zelená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Tenká červená čiara označuje vstupnú cenu, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať.
- Hrubá červená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Indikátor MACD sa používa pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité poznámky:
- Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
- Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
