Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s britskou librou
The price test at 1.3713 occurred just as the MACD indicator began to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair moved up to the target level of 1.3753. Selling from that point provided an additional 20 points in profit.
The pound extended its gains on the momentum generated yesterday. Investors interpreted this as a sign of a potential softening in the Fed's hawkish stance, which weakened the U.S. dollar and supported the British currency. Since there are currently no domestic events expected to affect the pound, external factors remain dominant.
Ahead of the release of Q1 GDP figures, financial markets have entered a wait-and-see mode, leading to a minor correction and profit-taking on the pair. These data points, which reflect overall economic activity, are key indicators of economic health and will shape investor sentiment going forward. At the same time, the release of weekly initial jobless claims will provide insight into labor market conditions, which also influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Another important factor is the trade balance. A positive trade balance indicates economic strength, while a deficit may signal vulnerability and dependence on imports. Given the ongoing trade war under Trump, this figure is unlikely to be favorable.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný signál
Scenario #1:I plan to buy the pound today at around 1.3733 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.3799 (thicker green line). At 1.3799, I'll exit long positions and consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move downward. A weaker data set could support further pound gains.Important: Before entering a long position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3692 twice consecutively while the MACD is in oversold territory. This setup should limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal. Growth toward 1.3733 and 1.3799 is expected.
Predajný signál
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3692 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick move lower. The key target will be 1.3636, where I'll exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction for a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers are likely to become active if the data are strong. Important: Before entering a short position, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3733 twice consecutively while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A move toward 1.3692 and 1.3636 is expected.
Vysvetlivky ku grafu:
- Tenká zelená čiara: nákupná cena.
- Hrubá zelená čiara: úroveň take profit pri dlhých pozíciách (ďalší rast za týmto bodom je nepravdepodobný).
- Tenká červená čiara: predajná cena.
- Hrubá červená čiara: úroveň take profit pri krátkych pozíciách (ďalší pokles je za týmto bodom nepravdepodobný).
- Indikátor MACD: kľúčový pre podmienky prekúpenosti/predpredanosti.
Dôležité poznámky pre začínajúcich obchodníkov
Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
