Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s eurom
The test of the price level at 1.1497 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros.
Statements from the Federal Reserve significantly impact the environment in global financial markets. Recent comments from regulatory officials about the possibility of changing the approach to interest rate cuts, with particular emphasis on deciding at the upcoming December meeting, led to a notable rise in the value of the U.S. dollar. This effect stems from traders interpreting such communication as a signal of a more restrictive monetary policy, making the dollar more appealing to investors seeking stability and higher returns. The easing of tensions in trade relations between the U.S. and China also positively affects the U.S. dollar.
Today, financial markets are preparing for an active day, with the first half marked by the release of several key macroeconomic reports. Particular attention will be given to data from Germany and the Eurozone, which could significantly influence currency fluctuations and market sentiment. The trading session will begin with the release of data on changes in German industrial orders. This indicator is considered important for assessing the state of the German economy, and unexpected results could lead to volatility in the currency market. Simultaneously, investors will monitor the Eurozone producer price index, which reflects the level of inflation in the region. By midday, attention will shift to the services sector PMI indices and the Eurozone composite PMI index. These leading indicators, based on surveys of purchasing managers, provide important signals about the current state of the Eurozone economy. Given the busy economic release schedule, a speech by the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency market. Recent statements from European Central Bank representatives are relatively predictable, and markets generally factor them into prices. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant and respond to unexpected statements that could adjust market sentiment.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný scenár
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros at a price around 1.1501 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1526. At 1.1526, I plan to exit the market and sell immediately on the bounce, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be expected within the framework of a correction. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1487 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1501 and 1.1526.
Predajný scenár
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the 1.1487 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1469, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately on the bounce (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today after two consecutive tests of the price 1.1501 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1487 and 1.1469.
Čo je na grafe:
- Tenká zelená čiara: vstupná cena, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj.
- Hrubá zelená čiara: odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Tenká červená čiara: vstupná cena, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať.
- Hrubá červená čiara: odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Indikátor MACD: dôležitý pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité: Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
