Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s eurom
Testing the price at 1.1551 coincided with the MACD indicator advancing significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and missed out on the pair's strong upward movement.
In the U.S., a sharp decline in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index weakened the American currency against the euro. Market participants interpreted this as a harbinger of slowing U.S. economic growth, negatively affecting the dollar's status as a safe haven. The downward trend of the dollar can be explained by expectations of further dovish actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, despite some warnings from its policymakers about the need to avoid rushing into easing. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank continues to adopt a more conservative policy, providing additional incentive for the euro's growth. The differences in monetary policy approaches of the two leading central banks have a significant impact on currency dynamics, and the current situation is a vivid confirmation of that.
Today, there are no significant macroeconomic data releases in the Eurozone; the only event is the publication of the Sentix investor confidence index. Although the Sentix index is not a decisive factor in ECB policy, it provides an assessment of investors' outlooks and forecasts for economic growth in the region. A decline in confidence reflected in this index could indicate potential vulnerability for the euro. On the other hand, positive Sentix data could temporarily support the euro by alleviating selling pressure. However, it is important to remember that this is just one of many factors influencing the exchange rate. The long-term dynamics of the euro will primarily depend on the ECB's monetary policy, inflation indicators, and the overall state of the European economy.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný scenár
- Scenario 1: Today, I can buy the euro upon reaching a price around 1.1571 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.1599. At the point of 1.1599, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The expectation of the euro's growth can follow positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.
- Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1554 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.1571 and 1.1599 can be expected.
Predajný scenár
- Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1554 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1534, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (aiming for a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction). There is unlikely to be significant pressure on the pair today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from there.
- Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1571 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.1554 and 1.1534 can be anticipated.
Čo je na grafe:
- Tenká zelená čiara: vstupná cena, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj.
- Hrubá zelená čiara: odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Tenká červená čiara: vstupná cena, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať.
- Hrubá červená čiara: odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Indikátor MACD: dôležitý pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité: Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
