Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s britskou librou
The test of the price at 1.3545 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed all the upward movement.
The dollar collapsed after the risk of a U.S. government shutdown increased. Traders instantly reacted to the growing uncertainty by offloading dollars and moving to safer assets. The cause for concern is the persistent reluctance of some members of Congress to approve funding for the Department of Homeland Security due to the operations of ICE, which was created by Trump to combat immigrants. The disagreements pertain to the MIB's policy on border security, key issues that divide the U.S. political landscape. If a compromise is not reached by January 31, many important functions of ICE and the MIB may be suspended. A new shutdown will pose significant economic risks to the U.S. and the global economy.
Given that there are no reports from the UK today, further growth of the pair can be expected. A sustainable consolidation above the weekly high will serve as an additional signal of continued growth. On the other hand, if the upward momentum weakens and quotes start to correct downward, it is important to monitor the nearest support levels. Overall, the technical picture for GBP/USD looks quite positive, but many factors—especially political—must be taken into account when making a final decision, and caution should be exercised.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný scenár
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3667 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3694 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3694, I intend to exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pound is expected today, in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3652 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3667 and 1.3694.
Predajný scenár
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3652 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3626, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's unlikely that pound sellers will manifest strongly. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3667 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposing levels of 1.3652 and 1.3626.
Čo je na grafe:
Tenká zelená čiara predstavuje vstupnú cenu, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj;
Hrubá zelená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný;
Tenká červená čiara označuje vstupnú cenu, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať;
Hrubá červená čiara je odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný;
Indikátor MACD: dôležitý pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité: Začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.
