FX.co ★ Päť predpovedí pre cenu zlata na rok 2024

Bank of America

Menoví stratégovia Bank of America sa domnievajú, že ceny zlata by mohli v priebehu nasledujúcich 12 až 18 mesiacov vzrásť na 3 000 dolárov za uncu. Tento býčí scenár závisí najmä od zvýšeného dopytu, ktorý by podporilo ďalšie zníženie sadzieb Federálneho rezervného systému. BofA zdôrazňuje význam ETF fondov na zlato krytých fyzickými aktívami a pokračujúcich nákupov zlata centrálnymi bankami. Analytici banky považujú tieto faktory za hlavné hnacie sily zlata, najmä v súvislosti s rastúcou volatilitou na trhoch s americkými dlhopismi a rastúcimi obavami z politickej a hospodárskej neistoty v Spojených štátoch.

Citigroup

Citigroup analysts are similarly optimistic. They predict that the price of gold could climb to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12 months. The bank points to strong demand for physical gold, continued central bank buying, and favorable macroeconomic conditions as key drivers behind the metal’s bullish trend. Despite the current rise in the US dollar and elevated interest rates, gold has already reached the critical $2,400 level. Experts note that a potential slowdown in the US economy could further boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates or if the economy enters a recession.

Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect gold prices to hit $2,700 per ounce by the end of 2024, driven by robust demand from Asian leaders and global regulators. This demand could shield gold from stock market losses and concerns over rising US national debt. "Gold may be the best hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks," Goldman Sachs said. The bank's research shows that a 1 percentage point increase in US inflation has historically led to a real return gain of 7 percentage points for commodities. Meanwhile, the same trigger causes stocks and bonds to lose value. Gold shines brightest during periods of extreme inflation, historically outperforming both equities and bonds, the experts concluded.

Societe Generale

Societe Generale also sees further gains for gold, with the bank’s currency strategists maintaining a bullish stance. They have outlined five major factors that will shape the gold market: geopolitics, the dollar, interest rates, investment flows, and central bank purchases. They claim that each of these drivers is "overwhelmingly positive" for gold. Societe Generale forecasts an average gold price of $2,700 per ounce in Q4 2024, rising to $2,720 in Q1 2025, and reaching $2,750 in Q2 2025. Throughout next year, the average spot price is expected to hover around $2,800 per ounce.

AMN Amro

Unlike most financial institutions, Dutch firm ABN Amro holds a more bearish view on gold’s near-term prospects. It predicts that gold prices could dive to around $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2024. ABN Amro attributes this outlook to fundamental factors, including a recent rally that peaked in May 2024 but has since lost steam. Nonetheless, despite rising real interest rates in the United States and a stronger dollar, gold has managed to strengthen this year, which the analysts describe as an atypical behavior. However, their pessimism is not universally shared. Experts at JP Morgan remain more optimistic, expecting gold to reach $2,600 per ounce by 2025.