FX.co ★ GBP/USD

I believe yesterday closed with a bullish candlestick, though I note it had a small shadow at the top, which I interpret as a hint of resistance. I observe the price is currently positioned at 1.3433, and I have identified clear sell targets that have formed on the hourly chart. I see the first target, which I find significant, is the 161.8 Fibonacci level at 1.3389, and I consider this the initial objective for a downward move. I then look toward the second target at the 261.8 Fibonacci level, which I calculate to be at 1.3345, and I view this as a stronger support zone. Furthermore, I acknowledge a third and more ambitious target at the 423.6 Fibonacci extension, which I see corresponds to the price of 1.3268. I assess these levels carefully, and I think they look quite realistic and reachable based on my technical analysis. I understand, however, that this movement will not be linear or swift; I expect the journey to these targets will likely take more than a single week. I also anticipate there will be some notable pullbacks and counter-trend rallies along the way, which I must navigate with patience. Still, despite these potential interruptions, I maintain my core expectation that these targets will ultimately be fully reached, as I see the current structure favoring a bearish correction

I am also closely monitoring the economic calendar today, and I see it features important news releases from both the UK and the US scheduled for the evening session. I recognize that this incoming data has the high potential to trigger increased market volatility, and I plan to adjust my risk management accordingly. I will be watching price action closely around these events, as I know they could accelerate a move toward my targets or provoke a sharp, temporary reversal. However, I have a clear contingency plan in mind; I am aware that only a decisive break above the 1.3461 resistance level would invalidate my current bearish outlook. I would interpret such a breakout as a significant shift in momentum, and I confirm it would immediately cancel out my established sell targets. In that alternative scenario, I would then shift my focus to identifying and pursuing new buy targets, as the breakout would signal a potential continuation of the prior bullish impulse. Therefore, I am preparing for both possibilities, but my primary bias remains toward the downside until I see that key resistance level breached. I am managing my position with this framework, combining my technical perspective with a healthy respect for the fundamental catalysts that could dictate short-term price action.