GOLD H4 Timeframe: The GOLD chart on the H4 timeframe shows a rather interesting transition phase after experiencing sharp downward pressure in mid-March. The price movement formed a deep lower low, then continued with a gradual recovery phase until early April. In this context, the use of the 100- and 200-day moving averages helps identify the direction of the intermediate trend and the strength of the current price structure. The 200-day moving average (MA) continues to trend downward, reflecting the previous major trend dominated by bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) has begun to turn upward and has even been seen moving flatter to slightly strengthening in recent sessions. This indicates a change in momentum from bearish to a consolidation phase or even the beginning of a new bullish trend. However, the current price position around or slightly above the 200-day moving average indicates that this area is a crucial zone for determining the next direction. The price is currently testing the horizontal resistance area in the 4830–4859 range. This area previously served as support, but was then strongly breached downwards in mid-March, technically transforming into resistance. Price reaction in this zone is quite significant; if the price fails to break through validly and only forms a rejection, a pullback to the nearest support area is likely.
The nearest support appears to be around 4728–4657, which intersects the 100-day moving average (MA). This area has served as a rebound point several times during the April consolidation phase, making it quite valid. If a decline occurs and the price remains above this zone, the higher low structure is maintained, and further upside is possible. However, if this support is breached by strong selling pressure, the potential for a decline to the next area around 4528 or even 4400 increases. On the upside, if the price breaks through the 4859 resistance with a solid candle and is supported by momentum, the next target is in the 4949 to 5049 range. A valid breakout above this area also has the potential to shift the structure to a more convincing bullish one, especially if the price can hold above the 200-day moving average (MA) and establish it as new support. The current price structure tends to form a consolidation pattern with an ascending trend, marked by a series of higher lows since the low around 4200. However, this increase is not yet fully strong as it is still being held back by key resistance and the 200-day moving average (MA). This reflects a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, as the market continues to seek a catalyst to determine the next dominant direction. From a technical perspective, as long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and does not fall below 4650, the short-term bias is bullish. However, stronger confirmation still requires a clear breakout above 4859. Conversely, a failure to break through resistance and a subsequent decline below the 100-day moving average (MA) would signal that selling pressure remains dominant, and the current rally is merely a corrective action within a broader downtrend. Overall, gold is currently at a crucial juncture. The interaction between price and the 100-day moving average (MA), 200-day moving average (MA), and horizontal resistance will be key in the coming sessions. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction at the current resistance area, as this is where the next movement will likely be determined, whether it will continue the recovery towards a new uptrend or renew broader bearish pressure.
