FX.co ★ USD/CHF

USD/CHF Daily Timeframe: The USD/CHF movement on the daily timeframe shows a bearish trend in the medium term, with selling pressure re-intensifying after a recovery phase. The approach using the 100-day moving average (MA100) and 200-day moving average (MA200), along with horizontal support and resistance lines, provides a fairly clear picture of the current market structure. The 200-day moving average (MA200), indicated by the red line, is seen consistently declining, reflecting the continued dominant bearish pressure in the long-term trend. This strongly indicates that any price increases are likely to be corrective as long as the price remains below the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average (MA200), marked by the blue line, briefly showed upward movement during the price rebound from its low in late January, but has now begun to level off and could even reverse downwards as the price weakens in recent sessions. The return of the price below the 100-day MA reinforces the signal that bearish momentum is beginning to regain dominance. From a horizontal perspective, the main resistance area appears to be around 0.7950 to 0.8000, which previously served as a strong supply zone and the area surrounding the 200-day moving average (MA). The price tested this area in early April but failed to break through decisively, which was then followed by a sharp decline. The failure to break through this resistance area is a classic signal that sellers still have significant control in the market. Above this area, there is further resistance around 0.8030 to 0.8100, but this level is still quite far away and will only be relevant if a larger trend change occurs.

On the support side, the 0.7790 to 0.7800 area is currently a key level being tested by the price. This level previously served as a consolidation area and is now determining the direction of the next movement. If the price is able to hold above this zone, there is a chance for a technical rebound towards the 100-day moving average (MA). However, if this support is firmly broken, selling pressure could potentially continue towards the 0.7740 to 0.7670 area, which is the next demand zone and the previous low. The candlestick structure over the past few days shows a predominance of bearish candles with relatively large bodies, reflecting quite aggressive selling pressure. Furthermore, the lower high pattern formed after the failure of resistance further confirms the validity of the downtrend. Although a higher low pattern had previously formed during the recovery phase, this structure is now weakening and could potentially reverse into a downtrend if key support is breached. Overall, the current bias for USD/CHF tends to be bearish as long as the price remains below the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Any price advance towards the resistance area, particularly around the 100-day moving average, could potentially represent an opportunity to resume the downtrend. However, the price reaction at the current support area remains noteworthy, as a strong rebound could trigger a consolidation phase before the next trend direction becomes clearer.