AUD/USD H4 Timeframe 
Based on the AUD/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, conditions still show that the main trend is predominantly bearish, although in the last few sessions a recovery attempt has started to appear, pushing price higher from its lowest point. This upward move can still be categorized as a corrective phase as long as price has not been able to break through the main resistance area and has not managed to move consistently above the 100-period Moving Average (MA) and the 200-period Moving Average (MA). The position of both indicators, which are still sloping downward, indicates that medium-term selling pressure is still dominant, so every price rally still has the potential to face pressure from market participants who use the rebound momentum to resume selling. Overall, the price structure since early June shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a key characteristic of a bearish trend. The sharp decline that occurred from mid to late June managed to push price down to the lowest area around 0.6880 before a buying reaction finally emerged, driving price back up toward the 0.6950 area. Even so, this rise has not been strong enough to change the overall trend structure. Price is still moving below the 200 MA, while the 100 MA, which is closer to price, remains a dynamic barrier that has not yet been convincingly broken. The 100 MA is currently slightly above price and has started to move relatively flat after previously declining quite sharply. This condition indicates that bearish momentum is starting to slow, but has not yet provided a valid reversal signal. As long as price remains below the 100 MA, the likelihood of renewed selling pressure is still quite high. On the other hand, the 200 MA, which is positioned higher, still has a negative slope, reflecting that the medium-term trend remains dominated by sellers. The distance between the 100 MA and 200 MA also still shows that a trend change has not occurred, so a new bullish confirmation will become stronger if price is able to break through both moving averages in sequence. From the horizontal support and resistance perspective, the 0.6954 area is the nearest resistance currently being tested by price. This level previously acted as a balance area before it was finally broken to the downside when selling pressure increased. If buyers are able to push price to close consistently above this area, then the upside potential toward the next resistance around 0.7043 will open up further. This resistance is significant because it is close to the previous distribution area and is also not far from the position of the 200 MA. A breakout above 0.7043 will be an early signal that bullish momentum is starting to develop and could open the way for a move toward the next resistance in the 0.7090 area. If buying momentum continues to increase, the next target lies in the 0.7151 area, while major resistance is seen around 0.7201, which was the peak of price movement in the previous period. On the support side, the 0.6915 level is the first defense area that needs attention. This level has several times managed to hold off selling pressure and has become the starting point of rebounds in the last few sessions. As long as price holds above this support, short-term recovery potential remains intact. However, if this support is broken with strong selling pressure, price could potentially retest the next support around 0.6866, which is the lowest area on the chart as well as a major support. A break below that level will strengthen bearish dominance and open room for a deeper decline in the medium term. From a price action perspective, it can be seen that buyers have started to show a positive response through the formation of several bullish candles that have gradually lifted price. However, the relatively moderate candle size and the absence of a clear breakout above resistance indicate that buying strength still needs confirmation. As long as price is still moving below the 100 MA, the potential for a rejection to form in the resistance area must still be watched. This condition indicates that the market is still in a transition phase between an upward correction and a continuation of the bearish trend. Technically, the moving average indicators are still signaling that the main trend has not changed. The 100 MA and 200 MA, both of which are above price, show that sellers still have the upper hand in the medium term. However, the fact that price is getting closer to the 100 MA shows that bearish pressure is starting to ease. If in the next few sessions price is able to break above the 100 MA as well as the horizontal resistance around 0.6954, then market sentiment could turn more constructive with upside targets toward 0.7043 to 0.7090. Conversely, if price again fails to break that resistance and a bearish candlestick pattern appears, then selling pressure is expected to dominate again with an initial target at 0.6915 and extending toward 0.6866. Thus, the outlook for AUD/USD on the H4 timeframe remains predominantly bearish in the medium term, even though a short-term recovery phase is currently underway. As long as price has not been able to move steadily above the 100 MA and 200 MA and has not managed to break through the key resistance levels mentioned, the ongoing rally is still more appropriately viewed as a correction within a downtrend. Therefore, price action around the 0.6954 area will be the key determinant of the next direction, whether AUD/USD can build stronger bullish momentum or instead resume the bearish trend that has dominated since early June.
