USD/CAD H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/CAD H4 timeframe chart, the current technical structure indicates that the currency pair remains under bearish pressure, although there are indications of a short-term rebound from the lower support area. The latest price on the chart is around 1.38518 after previously experiencing a fairly aggressive decline from the 1.4079 area to near 1.3731. This movement shows that sellers still have control of the main trend structure, while the recent increase is more appropriately viewed as a correction phase or technical rebound before confirmation of whether the market is capable of forming a larger trend reversal. One of the most important aspects of the chart is the price's position relative to the 100 and 200 Moving Averages. On the chart, the blue line can be used as the 100-day moving average, while the red line is the 200-day moving average. The position of these two moving averages provides a fairly clear picture of the intermediate trend. The 100-day moving average is currently below the 200-day moving average, and both are trending downward. Furthermore, the USD/CAD price is well below both moving averages. This condition is a bearish configuration because it indicates that the price has not only lost short-term momentum but has also moved below its medium- and long-term averages. A 100-day moving average (MA) below the 200-day moving average (MA) is a signal that selling pressure remains dominant. As long as the price is unable to rebound and remain above the 100-day moving average (MA), the chance of a continued downtrend remains relatively greater than the chance of a sustained bullish reversal. In this context, the 100-day moving average (MA) can serve as the first dynamic resistance level. If the USD/CAD rebound continues, the 100-day moving average (MA) area should be closely monitored, as it is likely to be a point where sellers will re-enter the market. On the other hand, the 200-day moving average (MA) serves as a stronger dynamic resistance level. The chart shows the 200-day moving average (MA) around 1.3970–1.3990. This area is also close to the horizontal resistance level of 1.40794. Therefore, even if the price manages to break through the 100-day moving average (MA), several significant obstacles remain before the bearish structure fully changes. Therefore, a rise towards the 100-day moving average (MA) cannot yet be considered a trend reversal. A strong breakout and the ability of the price to form higher highs and higher lows are required for a bullish structural change to be confirmed. From a horizontal support and resistance perspective, the 1.38607 level is a crucial area in the current environment. This level previously served as a price reaction zone and is visible on the chart as a horizontal line that is currently being retested by the price. The recent price position around 1.38518 indicates that USD/CAD remains slightly below this level. Therefore, 1.38607 can be considered the nearest resistance. If the H4 candle closes convincingly above 1.38607 and the price maintains this level as new support, the chances of a rebound towards the next resistance level will increase.
The next resistance lies around the 100-day moving average (MA), which is visually located approximately between 1.3900 and 1.3930. This area is crucial due to the confluence of the moving average and the previous price structure. Recent external technical data also places around 1.3937 as a key pivot point for the USD/CAD H4 structure; as long as the price remains well below this level, the intermediate structure remains bearish. If the price manages to break through 1.3937, the rebound momentum could strengthen and open the way to the 200-day moving average (MA) around 1.3970–1.3990. The next more significant horizontal resistance is 1.40794. This level is clearly visible on the chart and has previously been an area where the price has reacted several times. Interestingly, this level is also located close to the 200-day moving average (MA). The confluence of the horizontal resistance and the 200-day moving average (MA) makes the area around 1.3980–1.4080 a significant supply area. As long as USD/CAD cannot effectively break through this zone, any upside movement could potentially be merely a correction within the downtrend. OANDA's analysis from August 2026 also showed that the area around 1.4080 is a key resistance area after USD/CAD declined from higher levels. For further resistance, the chart shows 1.41752 and 1.42476. These two levels represent major resistance areas stemming from the previous price structure. The 1.41752 level can be considered intermediate resistance, while 1.42476 represents strong resistance and the previous peak area. However, given current market conditions, these two levels are still relatively distant, so they won't be a primary focus as long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA). Meanwhile, in terms of support, the 1.37829 area deserves attention after the price rebounded from the lower area. This support area is below the current price and could potentially serve as the first line of defense if the rebound fails to continue. If the price falls back to 1.37829 and holds, a short-term higher low is still possible. Conversely, if the H4 candlestick breaks and closes below 1.37829, bearish pressure will intensify. The most important support on the chart is located around 1.37310. This level was the lowest point of the recent decline and serves as a key boundary for the current bearish structure. Interestingly, the latest H4 technical analysis also identified the area around 1.3732 as key support after USD/CAD completed its downward wave. Therefore, the 1.3731–1.3732 area can be considered major support. As long as the price remains above this area, the possibility of a technical rebound remains open. However, if 1.3731 is validly broken, the bearish structure could potentially enter its next downward phase. Scenario-wise, the current conditions can be interpreted as a bear market rebounding. A short-term bullish signal will only become more compelling if the price manages to break through 1.38607 and then maintains that level as support. After that, attention can be directed to the 1.3900–1.3937 area, adjacent to the 100-day moving average (MA). A breakout and H4 close above this area would provide stronger confirmation that corrective momentum is developing. However, as long as the price is rejected again from 1.38607 or the 100-day moving average (MA), the bearish scenario remains the primary scenario. Conversely, if the price fails to hold the 1.38607 area and falls back below 1.37829, selling pressure will likely intensify. A breakout of 1.37310 would be a much stronger bearish signal, as it would mean the lowest support level on the chart has lost its function. This could open the door for a new lower low. Market analysis on August 20 also identified 1.3750 and 1.3700 as support levels after USD/CAD broke through the 1.3800 support level, so the price structure around 1.3730 deserves careful attention. From a price action perspective, the decline from 1.4079 to 1.3731 formed a fairly clear series of lower highs and lower lows. This reinforces the bearish interpretation. The rebound towards 1.3850 is currently insufficient to change the structure, as the price remains below the 100- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, technically, a rebound after a sharp decline often acts as a retracement phase before the main trend resumes. Therefore, traders should not immediately interpret the rise from 1.3731 as a bullish reversal without waiting for structural confirmation.
