CHFJPY M5 Technical Analysis — Smart Money Concepts 1. Market Structure and Overall Price Behavior The CHFJPY M5 chart is showing a clear transition from a volatile range into a bearish intraday structure, followed by a sharp liquidity-driven reaction from the lower levels. Looking strictly at the price action visible on the chart, price initially traded around the 198.39–198.42 region before gradually forming lower highs and moving toward the 198.24–198.20 area. The most important development is the strong bearish displacement after the price failed to sustain the upper region. This downward move eventually pushed CHFJPY below the marked RESISTANCE around 198.224 and toward the BSL (BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY) area near 198.123. I would therefore describe the current M5 structure as bearish-to-neutral after the liquidity sweep, rather than immediately calling it fully bullish. The chart shows that sellers controlled the major downward leg, while buyers became active only after price reached the lower liquidity zone. The current price around 198.203 is sitting very close to the marked SUPPORT and below the 198.224 resistance level, making the relationship between these two levels extremely important for the next structural move. 2. SWING HIGH — 198.423 Area The marked SWING HIGH around 198.423 is one of the strongest reference points on this chart. Price pushed aggressively into this area around the 25 Aug 00:50 region, briefly extending above the surrounding highs before immediately reversing with strong bearish candles. This behavior is important from a Smart Money Concepts perspective because the move above the previous high can be interpreted as a liquidity-taking event. The long upper extension around the swing high shows that price was unable to maintain acceptance at the higher level. After the rejection, the market began producing lower highs and lower prices. I would therefore treat 198.423 as a major overhead liquidity and supply reference rather than simply another resistance line. If price eventually returns to this region, I would watch the reaction carefully because a fresh rejection could reinforce the bearish structure. On the other hand, sustained acceptance above the swing high would invalidate much of the immediate bearish interpretation and could indicate that the previous liquidity event was followed by genuine bullish expansion. 3. SSL — Sell Side Liquidity The chart marks SSL (SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY) around the upper 198.423 region. In the context of the displayed price action, this liquidity sits above a sequence of previous highs where stop orders can potentially accumulate. Price eventually moved into that region and produced a sharp rejection. The important point is not simply that price touched the SSL area, but that the reaction afterward was strongly bearish. The market did not consolidate above the level; instead, it quickly returned below the previous trading range. This gives the liquidity sweep greater significance. I would interpret the move as evidence that the upper liquidity was used before price rotated lower. The subsequent decline toward 198.224 and then 198.123 created a completely different short-term environment. For me, the SSL zone remains a major future reference. If price climbs back toward 198.423 without first establishing strong bullish structure, I would expect this region to remain a potential rejection area. A clean breakout and sustained M5 closes above it would tell a different story. 4. BEARISH ORDER BLOCK The BEARISH ORDER BLOCK highlighted in orange sits below the upper liquidity region and covers an important area of previous price activity before the later bearish expansion. Price repeatedly interacted with this region before making the significant move toward the lower levels. From an SMC perspective, this zone can be treated as a potential supply area where sellers previously demonstrated strength. What makes it relevant is its location beneath the upper liquidity and above the subsequent bearish leg. If CHFJPY retraces deeply into this bearish order block, I would not automatically assume that the market will reverse. Instead, I would look for confirmation through rejection candles, a lower-timeframe MSS, or failure to reclaim important internal highs. The order block becomes stronger when combined with the liquidity context because the market already demonstrated rejection after visiting the upper side. Therefore, this zone is best viewed as a potential sell-on-reaction area rather than an unconditional entry level. 5. FVG — Fair Value Gap Several FVG (FAIR VALUE GAP) areas are visible on the chart, and these gaps help explain the imbalance created during the directional movements. The upper FVG around the 198.33–198.36 region represents an area where price moved rapidly enough to leave an imbalance between candles. Another FVG is visible closer to the 198.24–198.27 region. These zones are important because price often revisits areas of inefficient movement before continuing its broader directional path. On this chart, I would pay particular attention to whether price retraces into one of these FVGs and then rejects. If an FVG is filled and price immediately resumes in the original direction, that would support continuation. If price completely trades through an FVG and begins closing beyond the surrounding structure, its significance becomes weaker. Therefore, I would use the FVGs together with Order Blocks, liquidity and market structure rather than treating them as standalone signals. 6. LIQUIDITY SWEEP and Bearish Displacement The chart clearly highlights a LIQUIDITY SWEEP during the decline toward the 198.224 region. Before this move, CHFJPY had already formed a series of lower highs from the 198.35 area. The subsequent bearish candles accelerated the decline and pushed price through the marked resistance level. This is significant because the market did not simply drift downward; it displayed displacement. Strong bearish candles appeared as price moved from approximately 198.30 toward 198.22 and then lower. This type of movement shows that sellers were able to take control of the short-term order flow. I would therefore consider the bearish displacement more important than individual candles. The key question now is whether the current rebound is strong enough to reverse that displacement or whether it is merely a retracement. Until CHFJPY can reclaim the 198.224 level and establish higher highs above the recent rebound structure, the bearish displacement remains an important part of the chart narrative.
7. RESISTANCE — 198.224 The red horizontal RESISTANCE level at approximately 198.224 is currently one of the most important intraday levels on the chart. Price broke beneath this area during the major selloff and then attempted to recover. The current market is trading close to this level, which creates a classic decision zone. If price moves above 198.224 and begins closing M5 candles above it, the level could potentially transition from resistance toward support. However, if price repeatedly tests 198.224 and gets rejected, sellers may regain control and push the market back toward 198.153 and ultimately the 198.123 liquidity area. I would therefore avoid treating the line as simply a number. Its importance comes from its relationship with the recent bearish displacement and the current rebound. A confirmed reclaim would improve the bullish case, while repeated rejection would preserve the bearish structure. 8. SUPPORT — 198.203 The teal SUPPORT around 198.203 is currently acting as the immediate battleground between buyers and sellers. Price has repeatedly interacted with this level after the sharp decline. The reaction from this region shows that buyers are attempting to stabilize the market, but the rebound has not yet produced a decisive structural reversal. Because price is currently around 198.203, this level is particularly important for short-term execution. Holding above it could allow price to challenge 198.224 again. A sustained move above resistance could then open the path toward the internal highs around 198.243–198.273. Conversely, a clean breakdown below 198.203 would expose the lower portion of the chart again and increase the probability of another test toward 198.153 and 198.123. I would therefore treat 198.203 as the immediate confirmation line rather than predicting direction before price proves itself. 9. BSL — Buy Side Liquidity at 198.123 The marked BSL (BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY) near 198.123 is located beneath the recent sharp selloff and is associated with the lowest visible swing area. Price aggressively dropped into this zone and produced a pronounced lower wick before recovering. That reaction is important because it indicates that liquidity below the previous lows was likely involved in the move. The market did not simply stop randomly; it showed a visible reaction after reaching the lower extreme. This creates an important liquidity reference for future price action. If price returns to 198.123 and again rejects with strong bullish candles, it could reinforce the idea that buyers are defending this lower zone. However, if price breaks and closes decisively below the area, the current bullish reaction would lose much of its significance. In my view, 198.123 is the key downside invalidation and liquidity reference visible on the chart. 10. SWING LOW and Reaction from the Bottom The marked SWING LOW near 198.123 provides the clearest evidence of short-term buyer interest. Price accelerated downward into this region, printed a deep lower wick and then bounced upward. The reaction was fast enough to show that the market found demand after reaching the lower liquidity area. However, the rebound should not automatically be classified as a complete bullish reversal. A swing low becomes more meaningful when price subsequently forms a higher low and breaks an important previous high. At the moment, the chart shows a rebound from the low but still keeps price below the major 198.224 resistance. Therefore, I would call this a recovery from liquidity rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The next candles are important because buyers need to demonstrate that they can maintain the recovery instead of allowing price to fall back toward the swing low. 11. MSS — Market Structure Shift The chart identifies MSS (MARKET STRUCTURE SHIFT) in the lower-right portion. This is one of the most interesting developments because it suggests that the aggressive bearish movement may have temporarily shifted into a corrective bullish structure. After sweeping the lower area, price began creating upward reactions and attempting to reclaim internal structure. From an SMC perspective, the MSS is useful because it provides evidence that order flow may be changing after liquidity has been taken. Nevertheless, I would distinguish between a local MSS and a complete reversal of the broader M5 move. The larger decline from the 198.36 region remains visible. Therefore, the MSS should be treated as a confirmation of short-term buyer participation rather than proof that the entire bearish trend has ended. A stronger bullish continuation would require price to maintain higher lows and reclaim 198.224. 12. BOS — Break of Structure The marked BOS (BREAK OF STRUCTURE) works together with the MSS to describe the developing structure after the liquidity sweep. Once price reacted from the 198.123 area, the rebound attempted to break internal bearish structure. This is important because BOS can confirm that price is no longer moving exactly as it did during the previous bearish leg. However, the strength of this BOS depends on follow-through. If price breaks a level but immediately falls back beneath it, the move can become a false structural break. If buyers instead maintain price above the broken structure and create another higher low, the BOS becomes more convincing. Therefore, I would monitor the relationship between the BOS, 198.203 support and 198.224 resistance. A successful combination of these three elements would significantly improve the bullish intraday setup. 13. Bullish Order Block and Demand Reaction The BULLISH ORDER BLOCK shown in the lower portion of the chart represents the demand area associated with the previous bullish reaction. Price moved into this lower region and then produced an upward expansion, demonstrating that buyers were willing to defend the area. The later liquidity sweep toward 198.123 makes this zone even more interesting because the market effectively returned toward the lower demand region before reacting again. If price revisits the bullish order block and holds, it could provide the foundation for another bullish attempt. However, if price completely breaks through the zone and starts closing below it, the bullish thesis becomes weaker. I would therefore watch for a combination of rejection, higher-low formation and structural confirmation inside or around this order block. The strongest scenario would be a controlled pullback into demand followed by a fresh bullish displacement. 14. Current Bias, Key Levels and Trading Scenario Overall, the CHFJPY M5 chart currently shows bearish displacement followed by a liquidity-driven recovery and developing bullish MSS/BOS. I would not chase either direction at the current middle area because price is positioned between the important 198.203 support and 198.224 resistance. For a bullish scenario, I would want to see price hold above 198.203, reclaim 198.224 with convincing M5 closes, and then build higher lows. If that happens, the next visible upside areas are approximately 198.243, 198.273, 198.303 and potentially the 198.33–198.36 region where the FVG and previous structure are located. For a bearish scenario, rejection from 198.224 followed by a break below 198.203 would favor a move back toward 198.153 and the 198.123 BSL/swing-low area. A decisive break below 198.123 would invalidate the immediate bullish recovery and indicate renewed bearish expansion. My overall reading is therefore cautiously bearish below 198.224, but short-term bullish recovery above 198.203. The most important confirmation comes from how price behaves between these two levels. The chart does not yet justify assuming a full reversal; it shows a market that has swept liquidity, produced an MSS/BOS reaction, and is now testing whether buyers can convert that reaction into sustained structure. I would let price confirm the direction around these marked levels rather than entering purely in anticipation.
