GOLD Timeframe M30: Based on the GOLD price movement on the M30 timeframe, the overall technical structure still shows a bullish trend, although in the short term, the price is undergoing a consolidation phase after previously posting a fairly strong increase. The latest price is around 4646.33, while the previous movement had brought GOLD up from around 4324 to near 4700. This increase formed a series of clear higher highs and higher lows, so structurally, the main market trend on the M30 chart remains predominantly bullish. However, the current price position, which is not far from the resistance level of 4657.11, makes this area a crucial point for determining whether the upward momentum can resume or experience a deeper correction. Regarding moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA100), shown by the blue line, is below the price and has an upward slope. This position is a positive indication because it indicates that the average price over a 100-candle period is still moving upward. The price remaining above the 100-day moving average also indicates that buyers still have control of the medium-term structure. The 100-day moving average (MA100) can be used as dynamic support, especially during price pullbacks. From the chart, the 100-day moving average (MA) is approximately in the 4610–4620 area, making this zone a key area to monitor if GOLD declines from its current price. As long as the correction remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and buying pressure re-emerges, the potential for bullish continuation remains open. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), shown with the red line, is significantly lower than the current price, approximately around 4550–4560. The 200-day moving average (MA) also appears to be gradually rising. This reinforces the conclusion that the medium to longer-term trend on the M30 timeframe remains positive. When the price is simultaneously above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and both moving averages slope upward, this typically indicates strong buyer dominance. Besides serving as a trend direction indicator, the 200-day moving average can also act as stronger dynamic support in the event of a significant correction. Therefore, the area around the 200-day moving average (MA) should be considered as a crucial boundary between bullish structure and potential trend changes. Judging from horizontal support and resistance levels, the 4657.11 level is the closest and most important resistance level. The price has previously interacted with this area several times and broken through it, but has not been able to maintain a consistent position above it. This condition is evident in the upward movement towards the 4670s, approaching the main resistance level, before the price again experienced selling pressure. Therefore, 4657.11 can now be viewed as a confirmation area. If the M30 candlestick closes strongly above 4657.11 and the breakout is followed by a successful retest, the probability of bullish continuation increases. In this scenario, the next targets are around 4673.70, followed by the 4696.69 area, which is a key horizontal resistance level and close to the high on the chart.
The 4696.69 level is a much more important resistance level because it is near the peak of the last movement. If GOLD manages to break through 4696.69 with strong momentum, the bullish structure could potentially receive further impetus as the price enters a new high on the chart. Conversely, if the price fails to break through this area again and forms a strong rejection, the risk of a double top or short-term correction will increase. Therefore, 4696.69 can be considered major resistance in the current structure. Below the price, the first support area to watch is the 4620–4610 area, which is adjacent to the 100-day moving average (MA). This support is important because it functions as a combination of horizontal/dynamic support and a retracement area after the previous rally. If GOLD falls towards this area and then forms a bullish rejection, such as a bullish engulfing or pin bar on the 30-day moving average (MA), this could indicate that buyers are still maintaining the trend. Conversely, if the 100-day moving average (MA) is penetrated with a strong bearish candle and the price is able to hold below it, corrective pressure could increase. The next horizontal support level is at 4570.43. This level is quite important because it was previously part of the price structure when GOLD experienced a consolidation phase before resuming its upward movement. If support around the 100-day moving average (MA) fails to hold, 4570.43 becomes the next area with the potential to halt the decline. Interestingly, this area is also relatively close to the 200-day moving average (MA), creating a confluence between horizontal support and the longer-term moving average. If the price can hold above 4570.43 and the 200-day MA continues to rise, the bullish structure can still be considered healthy, despite a significant correction. Below 4570.43 lies support at 4450.59, followed by 4407.41, while the next major support level is around 4324.65. The 4450.59 level is crucial because it is located in the previous breakout and consolidation area. If GOLD falls towards this zone, the correction will be much larger than a normal pullback to the 100-day moving average (MA). A breakout of 4450.59 would signal a serious weakening of the bullish M30 structure. Meanwhile, 4407.41 and 4324.65 can be considered further support levels and are relevant if a significant market structure change occurs. From a price action perspective, GOLD's previous rally appeared very aggressive. The price moved from the 4400s to the 4500s, then continued its rise to the 4600s and finally reached the 4690s. After reaching this high resistance, the price experienced rejection and fell to around 4630 before rebounding. This pattern indicates that sellers are becoming active in the upper area, but buyers are still responding to any declines. As long as the rebound produces a higher low above the 100-day moving average (MA), the bullish structure remains intact. For a bullish scenario, the most compelling confirmation would be if the price retests 4657.11 and successfully breaks through it with a solid M30 candle. Ideally, this breakout should not be a mere wick or false breakout, but should be accompanied by the price maintaining the 4657.11 area as new support. If this occurs, the opportunity for a move towards 4673.70 and then 4696.69 increases. A breakout of the major resistance at 4696.69 could open the door for a new high. Conversely, a short-term bearish scenario would become more relevant if GOLD fails to maintain momentum above 4657.11 and subsequently breaks through the 4620–4610 area. A drop below the 100-day moving average (MA) could lead the price to test 4570.43. If 4570.43 is also convincingly broken, attention will shift to the 200-day moving average (MA) and the area around 4550–4560. A breakout of the 200-day moving average (MA) would be a more serious signal, indicating that the medium-term bullish momentum is starting to lose strength. Under such conditions, support at 4450.59 would be the next key level.
