EURAUD Analysis The weekly chart of the EUR/AUD pair shows a strong and solid uptrend following a prolonged period of stagnation and accumulation that lasted from mid-2023 to early 2024. This sideways loop formed a solid base between 1.5980 and 1.6570, as evidenced by repeated buying and price declines at the upper and lower boundaries of the rectangular box. A significant momentum reversal occurred with the breakout of this sideways loop, propelling the price into a strong uptrend. The breakout was supported by increased volume and larger bullish candles, indicating institutional participation and the beginning of a new uptrend. This sideways loop was followed by a well-structured uptrend with a series of higher highs and lower lows along the ascending trend line that started from the September 2022 low at 1.4280. Following the breakout in March 2025, the price rallied to a high of 1.8650 before recovering and then undergoing a minor consolidation phase. The price is currently trading sideways around 1.7540, a level roughly in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1.4280 low to the 1.8650 high. Fibonacci levels play an important role in identifying pullback zones. The price has held this 23.6% level for several weekly candles, indicating its importance as a short-term support level. Continued sideways movement above this level could lead to renewed buying pressure and a retest of the recent high. The latest weekly candle is a bullish candle with small wicks on both ends and a narrow body, indicating a gradual uptrend and the absence of strong selling pressure. This candle is followed by a large bearish candle with a long upper wick after recovering from the recent high. This bearish candle formed a temporary high, triggering short-term selling, which pushed the price back into the correction zone. However, since the initial decline, the market has not seen any significant selling, suggesting this is a correction rather than a trend reversal. The bullish candlestick's continuation at the 23.6% Fibonacci level indicates that the market is preparing for a new uptrend, awaiting confirmation from the next candle. The trend structure remains bullish. The ascending trend line connecting the major lows from late 2022 and early 2025 has not been broken, and the steep secondary trend line from January 2025 has also been tested but remains intact. The strong uptrend following the breakout has opened up room for a significant correction without compromising the stability of the primary trend. If the price continues to maintain the ascending trend line and Fibonacci levels, it could rise to 1.8050 and then 1.8650. A break above 1.8650 would pave the way for further gains into uncharted territory, with potential psychological support at 1.9000. Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.7540 and forms a strong weekly close below this level, the next support will be near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.6880. This level coincides with the previous breakout and represents a key demand area for buyers. On the downside, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels at 1.6550 and 1.6230, respectively, indicate deeper consolidation zones. However, these dips should be viewed as buying opportunities in a broader uptrend unless accompanied by a trendline break or structural breakdown. From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below the overbought level at 59.22, indicating some strength, but it has not yet been breached. This level suggests further upside potential if momentum continues. Stochastics are neutral to slightly bullish. The %K and %D lines are rising again after slowing due to overbought conditions. If confirmed by price action, this could signal a resumption of the uptrend. The MACD indicator remains in a bullish zone, with its line above the signal line. However, the histogram bands are narrowing, indicating a slight weakening in momentum. However, no bearish crossover or divergence has been confirmed yet, which could signal an immediate trend reversal. Overall, the price action clearly confirms the structure of the error. The alignment with various multi-month options, additional highs and lows, the support of the guest line, and the Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that the Gulf Coast region is under pressure. The late May 2025 retracement curve indicates a controlled trend reversal, not an impulsive one. The current 23.6% candlestick formation and momentum indicators suggest the possibility of further upside for the EUR/USD pair. One of the most important traditional weekly candlesticks for stop losses is 1.7750, which indicates buying momentum, and 1.7300 is an indicator of price formation. At the same time, buying within the general range is important.
