DAILY CHART ANALYSIS OF EURCHF Technical analysis of EURCHF reveals the pair has moved on from being a range market to a clear downtrend situation. Price at first couldn't hold on to the 0.9330 to 0.9350 supply zone, which was like a distribution shopping centre, stirring up a lot of activity. After several rejections of that zone, EURCHF laid down the road of lower highs, which is one of the first signs that the bulls' power is running out. Going under 0.9290 was the final nail in the structure shift coffin and the beginning of a downward directional move. From that time on, the sellers have been in control of the price, going below the dynamic resistance levels. The downward move took off very fast when EURCHF fell below the 0.9240 line, which had served as the consolidation floor. Currently, this line functions as a resistance and is used as the limit of the present structure. A couple of strong impulsive candles pushed the price straight down to 0.916 without any significant retracement, showing that the sellers are very aggressive. Afterwards, EURCHF initiated a slight break between 0.9160 and 0.9190; however, it was not able to get back up to the previous highs. Going lower from this band has helped to confirm the newly formed downtrend channel on the chart. Starting from the 0.9315 high point to the 0.9090 low point, the Fibonacci retracement unveils the structure of the correction amidst the bear trend. The first level of Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% is around 0.9140, and it serves as the present closest resistance level. EURCHF has approached this area several times, and yet it still hasn't managed to close above this area on a sustained basis. The 38.2% retracement level is around 0.9165, and at the same time, it corresponds to the previous consolidation structure, thus it will be a much more powerful resistance. If the decline goes deeper, the next support level will be the 50% retracement, which is near 0.9195, and there, the breakdown origin is found, which is why the two coincide. One can say that the key invalidation point of the bearish continuation plan is marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci line, which is near 0.9215, since that is the furthest the price can go in that direction without the bear scenario coming to an end. Price movement is still being restrained at the lower range of 0.9090 and 0.9140, that portray a continuation of movement rather than a reversal. EURCHF is bound by a descending trend line that connects the latest lower highs, and this is the way the momentum stays in the down direction. The structure will still be seller, dominated as long as the price stays below 0.9165. The failure to initiate higher swing highs further serves to prove that the counter-trend moves have thus far been rallies rather than impulses. EURCHF has been depicted as a bear market stair step pattern, that is, one where, after every rally attempt, the sellers get back to the market with more force than before. Key support is now fixed at 0.9090, which is the recent swing low and the 0% Fibonacci anchor point. If the price remains below 0.9090, the next downside target might be at 0.9050, with 0.9000 psychological support. EUR/CHF needs to regain 0.9195, which would signal a significant structural change, but presently, momentum is not in favor of that. The 0.9140 to 0.9165 range should continue to be resistance if the trend is not broken. The moving averages are turning down, and the price stays below them most of the time, which is a further sign of the bearish market. Eur/CHF bars keep forming near the bottom of the range, thus pointing to a lack of buyers on the market. The model shows that sellers are spreading the goods, and then there is an expansion, which is normally a sign of trend continuation. This rise in the opposite direction is the low of the bounce that returns to the continuation of the original downtrend. EURCHF as a whole still has a very strong and well-defined downtrend that is pretty much visible in the various clear horizontal resistance zones and the aligned Fibonacci retracement levels. The market has entered a phase of continuation with prices below the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. Without EURCHF managing to break and hold above 0.9215, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the prevailing bias will remain bearish. This, coupled with further pressure below 0.9140, indicates that the pair may go down again to the 0.9090 level and possibly beyond it to the next wave of downward structural movement.
