USD/CAD Timeframe H4: Based on the USD/CAD chart on the H4 timeframe, price movement remains in a medium-term bearish phase, although consolidation efforts have emerged in recent sessions, indicating the market is seeking a new direction. Selling pressure remains relatively dominant as the price is trading below the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MA). Furthermore, the 100-day moving average, which is below the 200-day moving average, indicates that the medium-term trend structure remains downward. The downward slope of both moving averages also confirms that the bearish sentiment is not yet completely over, although the intensity of the decline has slowed compared to the previous downward phase. In recent days, the price has attempted a recovery by rising closer to the 100- and 200-day moving averages. However, this attempt failed due to strong selling pressure just as the price entered the dynamic resistance area. The rejection from both moving averages indicates that market participants are still using every increase as an opportunity to sell again. This price reaction is a common characteristic of an active bearish trend, where dynamic resistance continues to limit the room for price increases. In terms of horizontal support and resistance, there are several important levels that serve as benchmarks for future movements. The nearest resistance is around 1.4097, which has previously served as a consolidation area and the initial point of selling pressure. If the price is able to rise again and break through this level with a strong bullish candle, the opportunity for further gains towards the next resistance level around 1.4160 will increase. However, given that the price remains below the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), any rise towards this resistance level still has the potential to face renewed selling pressure. Higher resistance is around 1.4247, which is a crucial level for changing the bearish structure to a more neutral one if successfully broken through.
On the downside, key support is located at 1.3988, which is currently the closest resistance zone for buyers. This level has successfully held declines several times, making it quite important in determining the next direction. If this support level is maintained, the price could potentially move in a consolidation pattern before attempting a recovery. However, if selling pressure increases and the price closes below 1.3988, the chance of a decline towards the next support level around 1.3947 increases. A breakout of this support would also strengthen the bearish trend and open up opportunities for USD/CAD to continue weakening towards lower levels. The 100-day moving average (MA) remaining below the 200-day moving average (MA) indicates that the medium-term trend has not yet signaled a reversal. These two moving averages now serve as dynamic resistance levels that must be broken if market sentiment is to shift to a more positive direction. As long as the price remains below these two indicators, any increase tends to be viewed as a correction within a downtrend, rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. Therefore, confirmation of a breakout above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages is crucial for the market to develop more sustained upward momentum. Price movements in recent sessions have also shown a decrease in volatility compared to the previous bearish phase. This indicates that the market is entering a consolidation phase after experiencing prolonged selling pressure. However, the consolidation is not sufficient to change the trend structure, as the price movement pattern is still dominated by lower highs and lower lows. As long as this pattern does not change to higher highs and higher lows, the bearish trend remains dominant. From a momentum perspective, selling pressure is indeed beginning to lose some of its strength, but there are no technical signals yet indicating a clear trend change. Every time the price attempted to rise near the 100- or 200-day moving averages, sellers regained control, preventing the gains from lasting. This indicates that market confidence in USD/CAD's strengthening remains relatively limited. Meanwhile, new buyers will gain stronger momentum if the price manages to break through horizontal resistance while maintaining a stable movement above both moving averages. Overall, USD/CAD technical analysis on the H4 timeframe remains bearish. The price remaining below the 100- and 200-day moving averages confirms that the medium-term downtrend continues to dominate the market. The 1.4097, 1.4160, and 1.4247 areas are important resistance levels that must be broken to shift the market structure to a more positive direction, while the 1.3988 and 1.3947 areas are key support levels that will determine whether selling pressure continues. As long as the price remains below both moving averages and fails to break through key resistance, the potential for weakness still outweighs the potential for upside. However, if the support holds and the price successfully forms a reversal pattern accompanied by a breakout above the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA), then the opportunity for a trend change to bullish will begin to open.
