USD/JPY Timeframe H4: Based on the USD/JPY chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price structure shows a significant trend change after previously moving in a bullish trend. The latest price is around 158.39, while the previous movement reached the 163.99 area before experiencing very aggressive selling pressure. The sharp decline that occurred at the end of July is a crucial point in interpreting the current USD/JPY technical structure, as the price not only corrected from its peak but also managed to break through the 100- and 200-day moving averages from top to bottom. This condition shifted the medium-term bias on the H4 chart to a more bearish one, although in the short term, a recovery attempt from the lower area began to appear. In the early stages of the chart, the price appeared to be in a relatively consistent uptrend. Price movement was mostly above the blue 100-day moving average and the red 200-day moving average, indicating the continued dominance of bullish momentum. The 100-day moving average was also above the 200-day moving average, thus reinforcing the upward trend. The price then reached the area around 163.30–163.99 in late July. However, after reaching that zone, a sharp change in momentum occurred. The price experienced a significant drop and broke through both the 100- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, this decline took the price well below both moving averages in a relatively short time. The current MA conditions provide quite important signals. The 100-day moving average has turned downward, while the 200-day moving average has also begun to lose its bullish slope and is moving lower. The price, currently hovering around 158.39, is also still quite far below both moving averages. Thus, the 100- and 200-day moving averages, which previously served as dynamic support, have the potential to transform into dynamic resistance. The 100-day moving average area appears to be around 161.5–162.0, while the 200-day moving average is around 160.8–161.3, although their values continue to fluctuate with the movement of subsequent candles. As long as the price is unable to break through these two moving averages and remain above them, bearish technical pressure remains dominant.
In terms of price structure, the 159.54 level represents the closest and most important horizontal resistance. This level previously served as a support area, but after being broken during a sharp decline, its role has the potential to shift to resistance. The price is currently below this level, so a rise towards 159.54 should be considered as a crucial test of buyer strength. If the price breaks through 159.54 with a strong H4 candle and then maintains its position above it, the opportunity for a recovery towards the next resistance level will increase. However, if the price is rejected again at 159.54, this could indicate that sellers are still in control. The next resistance level is located around 162.29. This level is crucial because it previously served as a price consolidation area and is located close to the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). Therefore, the 162.29 area is not only horizontal resistance but also has the potential to become a confluence zone for several technical barriers. If USD/JPY manages to break through 159.54, the path to 162.29 will likely be challenging. The 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) around this area are now trending downward. Therefore, 162.29–162.50 could become a strong resistance zone. A valid break above this zone would indicate that bearish pressure is starting to lose more serious dominance. On the upside, major resistance lies around 163.99. This level is a prominent peak on the chart and the highest point of the previous bullish trend. As long as the price remains well below this area, 163.99 is more appropriately viewed as medium- to long-term resistance than an immediate recovery target. If the price manages to break through 162.29 and then 163.99, the bearish structure on the H4 will experience more significant damage, increasing the chances of a new bullish trend forming. Meanwhile, in terms of support, the 157.21 area is a level that deserves primary attention. After a sharp decline in late July, the price rebounded from the lower area and then moved sideways before rising towards 158.39. This indicates that buyers are beginning to respond in the 157.21 area. However, the rebound so far is still classified as a technical rebound, as it has not been able to return the price above the 159.54 resistance level or the 100- and 200-day moving averages. If the price falls again and breaks through 157.21 convincingly, selling pressure could potentially continue towards the next support level around 155.22. The 155.22 level is a very important horizontal support level because it is near the extreme area of decline formed after a major sell-off. If 157.21 fails to hold, 155.22 will become an area likely to be retested by sellers. The price reaction around this level will be very decisive. If a strong rejection or bullish reversal pattern is formed, there is a chance for another rebound. On the other hand, if the H4 candle is able to penetrate 155.22 with large selling pressure, the bearish structure will become stronger and open up space towards lower levels. Overall, the USD/JPY H4 trendline currently maintains a bearish bias, primarily due to the price being below the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) following a sharp breakdown. The moving average structure is also beginning to support a bearish scenario, as the 100-day moving average (MA) is trending downwards, and the price is significantly below both indicators. However, the visually oversold conditions following the extreme decline maintain the risk of a technical rebound. Therefore, a rise towards 159.54 cannot be immediately considered a trend reversal; this area presents a crucial test for buyers. The bearish scenario will become stronger if the price fails to break through 159.54 and then moves back down and breaks through 157.21, with the next potential target being 155.22. Conversely, if USD/JPY is able to break through and maintain above 159.54, the chances of a recovery towards 162.29 will increase. However, to shift the bias to bullish more convincingly, the price needs to return above the 100- and 200-day moving averages and maintain these levels as support. With the current structure, the 159.54 area is the initial confirmation level, 162.29 is key resistance and moving averages, while 157.21 and 155.22 are key supports to monitor. As long as the price remains below 159.54 and both moving averages, a more conservative approach is to consider the rebound as a correction within the bearish trend until there is stronger technical evidence of a trend change.
