FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

Concise Economic Facts + Location — #CL Daily 94.28 H1 94.58 — Break Upside Boundary as on 09/09/2026 ◘ Fundamental Correlation — US-Iran Conflict Drives Break Upside Boundary Fundamental correlation drives break upside boundary: Brent rose $4.16 4.6% to $94.65 WTI rose $4.46 5.2% to $90.22 five-week highs highest close since July 24 and July 23, Brent rose 1.7% to $92.05 WTI gained 2.3% to $87.77 about 2% Tuesday renewed fighting US-Iran heightened concerns disruptions Strait could persist, crude above $76 after fresh US air strikes Iran renewed attacks commercial vessels near Strait raised fears supply disruptions US tightened sanctions revoking licenses Iranian oil exports five vessels reportedly attacked, sharp reduction shipping traffic Strait from 125 to 10 ships Kpler data 8 million bpd lost per ETO Barratt Oil could touch $110 if standoff drags on, crude shipments Middle East producers 11 million bpd now from 18 million before war Argus, average 10 commodity ships transited Strait per day past 10 days lowest since May Kpler If tanker traffic begins slow materially market could price much larger supply shock Goldman rally as high as $120 a barrel if attacks rise, Goldman $120/bbl risk if attacks on Middle East vessels intensify recommended bets natural gas diesel, Brent could surge above $120 intensified attacks Strait and Red Sea Goldman warned predicted $120 norm 2027 most pessimistic scenario region oil exports remain bottlenecked persistent tensions, baseline Goldman raised Dec 2026 forecast Brent to $85 from $80 $120 norm 2027 pessimistic, UOB energy supply disruption will continue inventory drawdown intensify Strait highly uncertain mostly blocked shipping across 2H26 world need continue relying alternative supply contingency measures renewed grind Brent higher coming quarters to USD 90 3Q26 USD 95 4Q26 USD 100 1H27, Oil demand growth falling 2026 Reuters poll 31 economists Brent average $85.22 2026 up from $84.50 June forecast $84.50 oil prices expected rise further this year as shipping disruptions Strait and attacks Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthis threaten flows, global bonds extend selloff oil surge on renewed US-Iran strikes since joint US-Israeli strikes Iran end February world energy reserves have run down due closure crucial Strait putting upward pressure fuel prices Euro zone inflation rose back above 3% August due to energy, while escalated conflict continues slow Strait traffic along with continued global tightness diesel near-term path least resistance higher per Dennis Kissler BOK Financial. Technical correlation: Daily break above gray line 94.60 resistance horizontal break Sep 2 2026 close 94.60 above 94.60 confirms fundamental supply disruption news same period Sep 2-8 oil rise to six-week highs worsening Middle East conflict, H1 breakout Sep 8 05:00 green candle 92.40 to 95.10 +2.70 confirms fundamental renewed fighting US-Iran heightened concerns disruptions Strait could persist. ◘ Daily Trend Structure — Break Upside Boundary Confirmed Daily downtrend Apr 2026 high 106.00 to June 2026 low 67.00 lower lows 106.00 to 101.40 to 96.60 to 89.00 to 77.60 to 67.00 -39.00 bearish displacement red candle June 16 long red, then uptrend June 2026 low 67.00 to Sep 2026 high 94.77 higher highs 67.00 to 70.00 to 73.80 teal MA long term support to 77.60 to 81.40 white MA to 85.20 dashed MA to 89.00 to 92.80 to 94.60 gray line break upside boundary, white MA rising from 84.00 to 83.00 to 81.40 to 83.00 bullish short term dashed MA rising from 88.00 to 79.00 to 85.20 bullish mid term teal MA rising from 66.20 to 77.60 bullish long term price above white MA bullish above dashed MA bullish above teal MA bullish triple bullish alignment golden cross, MACD Daily 3.062 1.964 bullish above zero histogram rising from -7.097 low June 2026 to 8.173 current bullish divergence strong, gray line 94.60 resistance break upside boundary confirmed Daily close above 94.60. ◘ H1 Trend Structure — Upside Boundary Break H1 uptrend Sep 2 low 89.10 to Sep 8 high 95.10 higher highs 89.10 to 90.20 to 91.30 to 92.40 to 93.50 to 94.72 to 95.10 top, white MA rising from 88.55 to 92.95 bullish short term dashed MA rising from 89.10 to 92.80 bullish mid term price above both MA bullish alignment, MACD H1 0.396 0.198 bullish above zero histogram rising from -0.421 low Sep 4 to 1.284 current bullish divergence strong, H1 94.58 open 94.72 high 94.32 low 94.57 close near high 94.72 after breakout from 94.05 resistance consolidation Sep 7 20:00 to Sep 8 05:00 range 92.40 to 94.05 then breakout Sep 8 05:00 green candle 92.40 to 95.10 +2.70 points bullish displacement confirming break upside boundary, current 94.57 above 94.57 resistance hold. ◘ Support Resistance Matrix Daily Resistance Daily 94.60 gray line break first, 94.77 high today second, 96.60 third, 101.40 fourth white MA prior top, 104.20 fifth, 106.00 sixth, 108.00 seventh, 109.70 top Apr 29 main BSL, 111.80 top. Support Daily 94.28 open today 94.15 low today 92.80 89.00 85.20 dashed MA 83.00 white MA 77.60 teal MA long term 73.80 70.00 67.00 low June 2026 major SSL. ◘ Support Resistance Matrix H1 Resistance H1 94.72 high today 95.10 top 95.20 Daily target. Support H1 94.32 low today 93.50 92.95 white MA 92.80 dashed MA 92.40 91.85 91.30 90.75 90.20 89.65 89.10 low Sep 2 SSL major. ◘ BSL Buy Side Liquidity Top — New Bullish Targets BSL top Daily 94.77 high today intraday BSL and 96.60 and 101.40 and 104.20 and 106.00 and 108.00 and 109.70 top Apr 29 main BSL and 111.80, H1 95.10 top intraday BSL and 94.72 high today. Current Daily 94.60 sits 0.17 below 94.77 intraday BSL and 15.10 below 109.70 main BSL, H1 94.57 sits 0.53 below 95.10 top. New bullish targets after break upside boundary: 94.77 first target breakout high, 95.20 second Daily white target, 96.60 third, 98.80 fourth May 21 high, 101.40 fifth, 104.20 sixth, 106.00 seventh, 108.00 eighth, 109.70 ninth top Apr 29 main BSL, 110.00 tenth ETO Barratt $110 if standoff drags, 120.00 eleventh Goldman $120 risk if attacks intensify, 100.00 UOB 1H27 target. ◘ SSL Sell Side Liquidity Bottom SSL bottom Daily 67.00 low June 2026 major SSL and 70.00 and 73.80 teal MA, H1 89.10 low Sep 2 major SSL and 88.55 low Sep 2. Current Daily 94.60 sits 27.60 above 67.00 SSL major H1 94.57 sits 5.47 above 89.10 SSL major. Equal lows raid at 67.00 June 2026 low long lower wick bullish displacement to 94.77 high Sep 2026 +27.77 confirming SSL sweep completed, and 89.10 Sep 2 low long lower wick bullish displacement to 95.10 high Sep 8 +6.00 confirming SSL sweep completed H1. ◘ Bullish OB Demand Zone — HTF Bullish OB bottom Daily 67.00-73.80 demand June 2026 low displacement June 2026 to July 2026 green candles 67.00 to 80.00 +13.00 and 77.60-81.40 demand July 2026 low displacement July 2026 to July 30 green candles 77.60 to 92.80 +15.20 and 81.40-85.20 demand Aug 2026 low displacement Aug 11 to Aug 21 green candles 81.40 to 88.00 +6.60, H1 89.10-90.20 demand Sep 2 low displacement Sep 2 to Sep 3 10:00 green candles 89.10 to 93.00 +3.90 and 88.55-89.65 demand Sep 2 low and 90.75-91.30 demand Sep 3 low and 91.30-92.40 demand Sep 4 low 88.80-89.10 SSL sweep Sep 4 11:00 long lower wick bullish displacement to 92.40 Sep 7. ◘ Bearish OB Supply Zone — Unmitigated Top Bearish OB top Daily 96.60-109.70 where sellers defended Apr 29-May 25 top red candles May 13 to June 16 109.70 to 67.00 -42.70 bearish displacement unmitigated top, and intraday 94.60-95.20 where sellers defended Sep 8 top consolidation Sep 8 13:00 to 21:00 small red candles -0.40 minor bearish displacement immediate supply. Need Daily close above 109.70 BSL for long term bullish invalidation, need H1 close above 95.10 top intraday BSL for short term bullish continuation to 96.60. ◘ FVG Fair Value Gap Logic Bearish FVG Daily 96.60-101.40 gap May 25 high to June 4 low unfilled where price now approaching after break upside boundary, and 101.40-104.20 gap May 13 high to May 25 low unfilled, H1 95.10-96.60 gap Sep 8 high to future high unfilled future. Bullish FVG Daily 73.80-77.60 gap July 8 low to July 20 high filled partially July 20 and 81.40-85.20 gap Aug 11 low to Aug 21 high filled partially Aug 21, H1 89.10-90.20 gap Sep 2 low to Sep 3 10:00 high filled partially Sep 3 and 90.75-91.30 gap Sep 3 low to Sep 3 high filled partially and 91.30-92.40 gap Sep 4 low to Sep 7 high filled partially Sep 7. ◘ BOS MSS CHoCH Logic — Break Upside Boundary BOS upside June 2026 low 67.00 to Sep 2026 high 94.77 HH BOS Daily green BOS upside Sep 2 low 89.10 to Sep 8 high 95.10 HH BOS H1 green, BOS downside Apr 2026 high 106.00 to June 2026 low 67.00 LL BOS Daily red MSS, iBOS Sep 2 low 89.10 to 93.00 Sep 3 10:00 and Sep 4 low 88.80 to 92.40 Sep 7 and Sep 7 low 91.85 to 95.10 Sep 8 05:00 and Sep 8 low 92.40 to 95.10 Sep 8 05:00 and 94.32 low today to 94.77 high today internal BOS. CHoCH bullish near 83.00 white MA Daily after June 2026 SSL sweep and near 92.80 dashed MA H1 after Sep 4 SSL sweep, bearish near 109.70 top Daily. ◘ Indicator Confluence — Triple Bullish Alignment Daily white MA 83.00 below price bullish dashed MA 85.20 below price bullish teal MA 77.60 below price bullish triple bullish alignment golden cross white above dashed above teal? Actually dashed 85.20 above white 83.00 but both rising bullish, H1 white MA 92.95 below price bullish dashed MA 92.80 below price bullish price above both bullish alignment, MACD Daily 3.062 1.964 bullish above zero histogram rising from -7.097 low June to 8.173 current bullish divergence strong MACD H1 0.396 0.198 bullish above zero histogram rising from -0.421 low Sep 4 to 1.284 current bullish divergence strong, RSI implied near 70 bullish after recovery from 30 oversold June low. ◘ Volume Analysis Volume Daily not shown but price action shows accumulation after June 2026 low green candles rising volume implied, H1 not shown but breakout Sep 8 05:00 green candle 92.40 to 95.10 +2.70 with volume spike implied accumulation. ◘ New Bullish Target Projection — After Break Upside Boundary New bullish target projection after break upside boundary Daily 94.60 gray line resistance break and H1 94.57 resistance break: Immediate target 94.77 high today first 0.17 points above current, 95.10 top H1 second 0.50 points, 95.20 third Daily white target 0.60 points, 96.60 fourth 2.00 points, 98.80 fifth May 21 high 4.20 points, 100.00 sixth psychological UOB 1H27 target 5.40 points, 101.40 seventh 6.80 points, 104.20 eighth 9.60 points, 106.00 ninth 11.40 points, 108.00 tenth 13.40 points, 109.70 eleventh top Apr 29 main BSL 15.10 points, 110.00 twelfth ETO Barratt $110 if standoff drags 15.40 points, 120.00 thirteenth Goldman $120 risk if attacks intensify 25.40 points. This projection aligns with Strait remaining highly uncertain mostly blocked 2H26 inventory drawdown intensify UOB $90 3Q26 $95 4Q26 $100 1H27 and Brent $94.65 +4.6% WTI $90.22 +5.2% five-week highs and 8 million bpd lost and 11 million bpd now vs 18 million before war Argus and 10 ships per day lowest since May Kpler.

◘ Next Aim Bullish Detailed — Safe Entry Primary bullish path while above 85.20 dashed MA Daily and 83.00 white MA Daily and 77.60 teal MA Daily long term support and above 92.80 dashed MA H1 and 92.95 white MA H1 and above 89.10 SSL major H1 and 67.00 SSL major Daily and above 94.60 gray line break upside boundary. If Daily close above 94.77 high today and above 95.20 Daily white target with volume expansion green candles and MACD bullish expansion above 1.964 signal and H1 close above 95.10 top intraday BSL with volume expansion green candles and MACD bullish expansion above 0.198 signal next aim Daily 94.77 first target breakout high 0.17 points, 95.20 second 0.60 points, 96.60 third 2.00 points, 98.80 fourth 4.20 points, 101.40 fifth 6.80 points, 104.20 sixth 9.60 points, 106.00 seventh 11.40 points, 109.70 eighth main BSL 15.10 points, 110.00 ninth ETO $110 15.40 points, 120.00 tenth Goldman $120 25.40 points. ◘ Next Aim Bearish Counter — Pullback Before Continuation Bearish counter path pullback before continuation while below 95.10 top H1 intraday BSL and below 94.77 high today and below 109.70 top BSL main. If Daily close below 94.15 low today and below gray line 94.60 with red candles bearish displacement and volume expansion red and MACD bearish divergence below 1.964 signal and H1 close below 94.32 low today and below white MA 92.95 with red candles bearish displacement and MACD bearish divergence below 0.198 signal next aim Daily 94.15 low today first 0.45 points pullback, 92.80 second 1.80 points, 89.00 third 5.60 points, 85.20 fourth dashed MA 9.40 points, 83.00 fifth white MA 11.60 points, 77.60 sixth teal MA long term 17.00 points, H1 92.95 white MA first 1.65 points, 92.80 dashed MA second 1.80 points, 92.40 third 2.20 points, 91.85 fourth 2.75 points, 91.30 fifth 3.30 points, 89.10 sixth major SSL Sep 2 low 5.50 points, 67.00 seventh major SSL June low 27.60 points pullback before continuation bullish. ◘ Execution Plan — Safe Trade After Break Upside Boundary Institutional Liquidity Raid wait for internal BOS confirmation before entry: raid at 67.00 SSL sweep June 2026 low long lower wick bullish displacement to 94.77 high Sep 2026 +27.77 institutional buying and 89.10 SSL sweep Sep 2 low long lower wick bullish displacement to 95.10 high Sep 8 +6.00 institutional buying now break upside boundary gray line 94.60 Daily and 94.57 H1. Trade plan bullish continuation safe entry near 94.15-94.32 low today current consolidation support after breakout with stop loss below 92.80 dashed MA H1 and 92.95 white MA H1 for 1.80 points risk and below 85.20 dashed MA Daily for longer risk 9.40 points. Take Profit matrix bullish continuation: 94.77 first breakout high 0.17 points 0.09 reward risk for H1 risk 1.80, 95.10 second top H1 0.50 points 0.27 reward, 95.20 third Daily white target 0.60 points 0.33 reward, 96.60 fourth 2.00 points 1.11 reward, 98.80 fifth May 21 high 4.20 points 2.33 reward, 101.40 sixth 6.80 points 3.77 reward, 104.20 seventh 9.60 points 5.33 reward, 109.70 eighth main BSL Apr 29 top 15.10 points 8.38 reward, 110.00 ninth ETO $110 if standoff drags 15.40 points 8.55 reward, 120.00 tenth Goldman $120 risk if attacks intensify 25.40 points 14.11 reward. Safe trade logic avoids middle 94.60 gray line where risk reward poor unless Daily BOS confirmation above 94.77 for bullish continuation to BSL 109.70 and $110 and $120. ◘ Risk Management — Position Sizing Position size small 0.5% risk per trade safe logic for crude volatile after break upside boundary, stop loss placement below 92.80 dashed MA H1 for short term 1.80 points risk and below 85.20 dashed MA Daily for swing 9.40 points risk, reward to risk targets 1.5 to 14.0 based on SSL and BSL distances to 110.00 and 120.00. Volume to SMC thesis increasing volume during June 2026 low to Sep 2026 high accumulation confirms bullish continuation decreasing volume during consolidation Sep 8 13:00 to 21:00 indicates re-accumulation before continuation to BSL 109.70 and $110 $120. ◘ Break Upside Boundary With New Bullish Targets $110 $120 Final summary: #CL Daily at 94.60 close above gray line 94.60 resistance break upside boundary after uptrend from 67.00 low June 2026 SSL sweep major long lower wick bullish displacement +27.77 to 94.77 high Sep 2026, H1 at 94.57 close near high 94.72 after uptrend from 89.10 low Sep 2 SSL sweep major long lower wick bullish displacement +6.00 to 95.10 high Sep 8, white MA 83.00 Daily below price bullish dashed MA 85.20 Daily below price bullish teal MA 77.60 Daily below price bullish triple bullish alignment golden cross, white MA 92.95 H1 below price bullish dashed MA 92.80 H1 below price bullish price above both bullish alignment, MACD Daily 3.062 1.964 bullish above zero histogram rising from -7.097 low June to 8.173 current bullish divergence strong MACD H1 0.396 0.198 bullish above zero histogram rising from -0.421 low Sep 4 to 1.284 current bullish divergence strong, RSI implied near 70 bullish after recovery from 30 oversold June low. Bias bullish while above 85.20 dashed MA Daily and 83.00 white MA Daily and 77.60 teal MA Daily long term support and above 92.80 dashed MA H1 and 92.95 white MA H1 and above 89.10 SSL major H1 and 67.00 SSL major Daily and above 94.60 gray line break upside boundary. Range most probable while 89.10 to 95.10 holds accumulation between 89.10 support low Sep 2 and 95.10 resistance top Sep 8 with gray line 94.60 middle decision break upside boundary. Execution: buy near 94.15-94.32 low today current consolidation support after breakout with stop below 92.80 dashed MA H1 1.80 points risk and below 85.20 dashed MA Daily 9.40 points risk targeting 94.77 first 0.17 points, 95.10 second 0.50 points, 95.20 third 0.60 points, 96.60 fourth 2.00 points, 98.80 fifth 4.20 points toward BSL 109.70 top Apr 29 main 15.10 points and 110.00 ETO $110 if standoff drags 15.40 points and 120.00 Goldman $120 risk if attacks intensify 25.40 points, sell only near 95.10-96.60 resistance top channel with bearish engulfing red candle long upper wick similar to Sep 8 05:00 top with stop above 96.60 for 1.50 points risk targeting 94.32 first, 92.95 second white MA, 92.80 third dashed MA, 89.10 fourth major SSL Sep 2 low. Avoid middle 94.60 gray line where risk reward poor unless Daily BOS confirmation above 94.77 for bullish continuation to BSL 109.70 and $110 and $120. Net decision point at 94.60 Daily break upside boundary after SSL sweep at 67.00 and 89.10 next aim depends on internal H1 BOS confirmation above 94.77 high and 95.10 top for bullish continuation to 95.20-96.60-101.40-109.70 BSL and $110 $120 new bullish targets driven by US-Iran conflict Strait traffic 125 to 10 ships Kpler 8 million bpd lost 11 million bpd now vs 18 million before war Argus 10 ships per day lowest since May Kpler Brent $94.65 +4.6% WTI $90.22 +5.2% five-week highs and joint US-Israeli strikes end February world energy reserves run down due closure crucial Strait putting upward pressure fuel prices Euro zone inflation back above 3% August due to energy and while escalated conflict continues slow Strait traffic along with continued global tightness diesel near-term path least resistance higher.