I observe the current D1 chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish wave structure building higher. I notice the MACD indicator is rising in the upper buy zone, staying above its signal line, which I interpret as ongoing upward momentum. I recall that in late December, the price consolidated tightly for several days, forming what I see as an accumulation zone. During earlier pullbacks, I identify a clear ascending trendline drawn from swing lows that consistently acted as support, preventing deeper declines. I note that the horizontal resistance at 2635 initially capped upward moves, but once this level broke, I expected the rally to target the descending resistance line connecting prior highs—a move that played out as anticipated. I saw a false breakout above 2635 before buyers regained control, pushing prices higher in a “ladder-like” pattern. After testing the descending resistance line, I observed a pullback to the 2659 support zone, which held firm before another leg up.
I recognize the price later broke upward from a narrowing triangle pattern, reaching December’s high of 2726. When it briefly retreated, I noted strong support at 2695, reinforcing my view that buyers remained in charge. Since the December peak wasn’t decisively exceeded initially, I anticipated renewed bullish momentum, which materialized as prices broke 2726, flipped it to support, and surged to a new all-time high of 2788. I highlight that last Friday’s failure to close above 2788 left this level untested, but I still expect it to be challenged soon. Yesterday, I saw the price rebound from the 2726 support level, suggesting buyers are defending key zones. While I expected Wednesday’s U.S. news events to trigger a fresh high, the breakout was delayed—likely due to profit-taking or positioning adjustments. I conclude that the broader structure remains bullish, and despite short-term hesitation, I maintain my focus on the 2788 historical high as the next target. I believe the current consolidation is temporary, and renewed buying pressure should eventually push gold to new records.I interpret Powell’s speech as broadly neutral, which I believe contributed to gold’s muted price action, as it lacked groundbreaking guidance to fuel sustained momentum. However, I note that this neutrality still disrupted the prior bullish impulse, creating a pivot in market psychology. I observed earlier this week that Monday’s double-impulse structure likely marked a completion phase, as similar patterns had already played out intraday and even on the daily chart. I now see this dynamic unfolding in real time, with Tuesday’s corrective move in the right shoulder of the pattern exceeding my initial projected boundaries. I attribute this volatility to strategic positioning by institutional players (“venerable moles”), who I suspect priced in a high probability of mean reversion after Monday’s exaggerated swings. I maintain that regardless of short-term noise, the path of least resistance still points toward testing the 2787.5 level. Even if price consolidates temporarily, I expect this target to act as a magnetic zone, with traders likely capitalizing on retracements to position for a 50-cent-per-ounce swing. For gold (XAUUSD), I conclude that Powell’s ambiguous messaging isn’t a catalyst for sidelining positions but rather necessitates tactical adjustments. I am repositioning my analysis to account for this rerouted momentum, focusing on structural support/resistance levels rather than relying on macro narratives. I emphasize that technical confluence—not Fed rhetoric—now drives my near-term bias, with the 2787.5 high serving as the critical litmus test for bullish conviction.
