CRUDE OIL PAIR ANALYSIS Global crude oil prices are still declining this week. Previously, prices had also fallen in the range of 74.00 - 73.00 per barrel. Tensions between US President D. Trump and OPEC + regarding prices have created uncertainty for consumers. On the other hand, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that there was an increase in the amount of US crude oil production. This has depressed crude oil prices to almost reach the range of 72.00 per barrel. Basically, US sanctions against Russia for shipping in the Asian region can support crude oil prices. However, the rapidly increasing amount of production has actually burdened crude oil prices and may last in the medium term.
Observing the daily time frame, prices that experienced a rally to reach high prices of 80.76 managed to pass the previous high prices of around 78.45. This shows that the price pattern structure can be said to be in a higher high - higher low condition. Just looking from the perspective of the Moving Average indicator, it seems that the trend direction is still bearish because the EMA 50 remains below the SMA 200. Suppose the price fails to complete the retracement which has currently reached around FR 61.8 - 72.01. This means that the price decline rally which should only be a correction phase will move lower towards FR 78.6 - 69.63. The perspective of the Stochastic indicator which has crossed when entering the oversold zone at level 20 - 10, will basically make the price move up. Unfortunately, the parameter failed to be above level 20 and currently looks like it will cross again. In addition, the downtrend momentum has certainly weakened because the histogram volume is approaching level 0 in the positive area. If there is no increase in the price of crude oil towards FR 50 - 73.68, the histogram can cross into the negative area. Of course, the momentum will change to a downtrend which is in accordance with the direction of the bearish trend. SETUP ENTRY POSITION Short-term trading options, may be able to utilize a counter trend strategy that is temporarily against the direction of the bearish trend. The BUY entry position is placed instantly while the price is still consolidating around FR 61.8 - 72.01. The target for placing take profit is FR 38.2 - 75.35 then placing stop loss at FR 78.6 - 69.63. Confirmation is waiting for the Stochastic indicator parameter to cross the oversold zone again at level 20 - 10 which indicates the point of selling saturation. The volume histogram of the AO indicator can at least widen slightly above level 0 or the positive area.
